Spread: Louisiana (-10.5)

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Louisiana-Monroe (50%) · Louisiana-Monroe at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 13

Louisiana48¢Louisiana-Monroe52¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Louisiana-Monroe

Consensus Traders

Louisiana-Monroe 50%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$27.8

Smart Money Entry

51.2¢ → 52.5¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralLouisiana-Monroe at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Louisiana-Monroe

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Louisiana48%

Louisiana-Monroe53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Louisiana-Monroe6 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,606

Combined PnL+$25.57

Louisiana6 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,099

Combined PnL+$2.22

Louisiana-Monroe — 50%Louisiana — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Louisiana-Monroeavg 51.2¢	$711.29	$729.12	+$17.83	52% 388-362 (750)
BA banepirCTR	Louisianaavg 49¢	$441	$436.5	-$4.5	60% 12-8 (20)
PU purplegatto	Louisiana-Monroeavg 52¢	$347.36	$350.7	+$3.34	68% 2613-1210 (3823)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Louisianaavg 48¢	$320.64	$330.66	+$10.02	48% 581-618 (1199)
PW Pwaddler	Louisiana-Monroeavg 50¢	$216.5	$220.83	+$4.33	49% 263-278 (541)
VeryLucky888CTR	Louisianaavg 48¢	$149.32	$147.88	-$1.44	53% 852-766 (1618)
TimeTravelerCTR	Louisianaavg 50¢	$100	$98	-$2	19% 16-70 (86)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Louisiana-Monroeavg 51¢	$33.87	$33.87	-$0	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
MO monkeymashingkeyboard<$100	Louisiana-Monroeavg 52¢	$16.64	$16.8	+$0.16	54% 529-455 (984)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Louisiana-Monroeavg 51¢	$9.18	$9.09	-$0.09	44% 177-221 (398)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Louisianaavg 48¢	$4.84	$4.94	+$0.1	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Louisianaavg 47¢	$4.39	$4.44	+$0.05	23% 193-656 (849)

nigiri99

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$711.29

Value

$729.12

PnL

+$17.83

Record

52%

388-362 (750)

banepirCTR

Louisiana

Invested

$441

Value

$436.5

PnL

-$4.5

Record

60%

12-8 (20)

purplegatto

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$347.36

Value

$350.7

PnL

+$3.34

Record

68%

2613-1210 (3823)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Louisiana

Invested

$320.64

Value

$330.66

PnL

+$10.02

Record

48%

581-618 (1199)

Pwaddler

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$216.5

Value

$220.83

PnL

+$4.33

Record

49%

263-278 (541)

VeryLucky888CTR

Louisiana

Invested

$149.32

Value

$147.88

PnL

-$1.44

Record

53%

852-766 (1618)

TimeTravelerCTR

Louisiana

Invested

$100

Value

$98

PnL

-$2

Record

19%

16-70 (86)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$33.87

Value

$33.87

PnL

-$0

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

monkeymashingkeyboard<$100

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$16.64

Value

$16.8

PnL

+$0.16

Record

54%

529-455 (984)

Forecastication2<$100

Louisiana-Monroe

Invested

$9.18

Value

$9.09

PnL

-$0.09

Record

44%

177-221 (398)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Louisiana

Invested

$4.84

Value

$4.94

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Louisiana

Invested

$4.39

Value

$4.44

PnL

+$0.05

Record

23%

193-656 (849)

Research grade

NeutralLouisiana-Monroe at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Louisiana-Monroe

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Louisiana-Monroe wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.