Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (67%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Louisville vs. North Carolina: O/U 57.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 33¢ · $43K held · ended Nov 15

Over67¢Under33¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$42.8K

Combined PnL

-$3.85

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 33¢

-34% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over67%

Under33%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$21.8K

Total Shares42,797

Combined PnL+$427.97

Over4 traders

Total Value$20.8K

Total Shares42,436

Combined PnL-$431.82

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Underavg 50¢	$19.8K	$20.2K	+$395.72	49% 650-689 (1339)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 50¢	$20.0K	$19.6K	-$399.72	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Underavg 50¢	$799.5	$815.49	+$15.99	5% 27-542 (569)
LI lightotunnel35CTR	Underavg 51¢	$784.21	$799.59	+$15.38	23% 18-60 (78)
nigiri99	Overavg 50¢	$802.5	$770.4	-$32.1	52% 602-565 (1167)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 49¢	$392	$392	+$0	26% 375-1050 (1425)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	68% 136-63 (199)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$102	+$2
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$98	-$2
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$44.02	$44.9	+$0.88	39% 419-652 (1071)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Overavg 49¢	$28.42	$28.42	+$0	47% 339-375 (714)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Under

Invested

$19,786.24

Value

$20.2K

PnL

+$395.72

Record

49%

650-689 (1339)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$19,986.3

Value

$19.6K

PnL

-$399.72

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

pltrkr111CTR

Under

Invested

$799.5

Value

$815.49

PnL

+$15.99

Record

27-542 (569)

lightotunnel35CTR

Under

Invested

$784.21

Value

$799.59

PnL

+$15.38

Record

23%

18-60 (78)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$802.5

Value

$770.4

PnL

-$32.1

Record

52%

602-565 (1167)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$392

Value

$392

PnL

+$0

Record

26%

375-1050 (1425)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

68%

136-63 (199)

Both legs:

Invested

$44.02

Value

$44.9

PnL

+$0.88

Record

39%

419-652 (1071)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Over

Invested

$28.42

Value

$28.42

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

339-375 (714)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 33%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.