Liberty vs. New Mexico State

11 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Liberty (69%) · Liberty at 94¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 8

Liberty94¢New Mexico State6¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Liberty

Consensus Traders

Liberty 69%

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

-$25.63

Smart Money Entry

86.1¢ → 93.5¢

+9% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralLiberty at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Liberty

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Liberty94%

New Mexico State7%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Liberty11 traders

Total Value$15.5K

Total Shares16,329

Combined PnL+$279.37

New Mexico State5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares14,568

Combined PnL-$305

Liberty — 69%New Mexico State — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Liberty. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLiberty 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLiberty 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedLiberty 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Liberty 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
65 6512395314597884	Libertyavg 87.4¢	$7.3K	$7.7K	+$378.65	51% 5014-4884 (9898)
CUTJALENHURTS	Libertyavg 87.1¢	$3.6K	$3.1K	-$513.57	52% 6414-6029 (12443)
RN1	Libertyavg 85.6¢	$2.1K	$2.3K	+$169.76	53% 63014-55227 (118241)
38 38791873984189	Libertyavg 80.3¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$163.03	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR	New Mexico Stateavg 8.7¢	$959.27	$830.83	-$128.44	47% 535-611 (1146)
PA Pan9X	Libertyavg 86.8¢	$428.84	$411.34	-$2.5	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
0X 0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2	Libertyavg 76¢	$216.49	$261.53	+$45.04	53% 14954-13478 (28432)
SN SnakeBallCTR	New Mexico Stateavg 13¢	$169.65	$176.17	+$6.52	51% 38648-37820 (76468)
MA MadridTimeCTR	New Mexico Stateavg 13.3¢	$158.52	$160.43	+$1.91	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
dips.	Libertyavg 78¢	$118.56	$140.6	+$22.04	47% 11040-12658 (23698)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e	Libertyavg 78¢	$118.56	$131.48	+$12.92	58% 3248-2345 (5593)
OJ ojg	Libertyavg 89.3¢	$120.97	$124.93	+$3.95	43% 838-1096 (1934)
betdgeCTR	New Mexico Stateavg 26¢	$247	$71.25	-$175.75	49% 1247-1285 (2532)
VeryLucky888<$100	Libertyavg 85¢	$52.42	$57.04	+$4.62	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
tradecraft<$100	Libertyavg 82¢	$21.48	$16.91	-$4.57	51% 6523-6284 (12807)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100	New Mexico Stateavg 27¢	$12.8	$3.55	-$9.24	42% 8192-11384 (19576)

6512395314597884

Liberty

Invested

$7,280.21

Value

$7.7K

PnL

+$378.65

Record

51%

5014-4884 (9898)

CUTJALENHURTS

Liberty

Invested

$3,600.98

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$513.57

Record

52%

6414-6029 (12443)

RN1

Liberty

Invested

$2,108.44

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$169.76

Record

53%

63014-55227 (118241)

38791873984189

Liberty

Invested

$1,134.44

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$163.03

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186CTR

New Mexico State

Invested

$959.27

Value

$830.83

PnL

-$128.44

Record

47%

535-611 (1146)

Pan9X

Liberty

Invested

$428.84

Value

$411.34

PnL

-$2.5

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

0xD9E0AACa471f48F91A26E8669A805f2

Liberty

Invested

$216.49

Value

$261.53

PnL

+$45.04

Record

53%

14954-13478 (28432)

SnakeBallCTR

New Mexico State

Invested

$169.65

Value

$176.17

PnL

+$6.52

Record

51%

38648-37820 (76468)

MadridTimeCTR

New Mexico State

Invested

$158.52

Value

$160.43

PnL

+$1.91

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

dips.

Liberty

Invested

$118.56

Value

$140.6

PnL

+$22.04

Record

47%

11040-12658 (23698)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e

Liberty

Invested

$118.56

Value

$131.48

PnL

+$12.92

Record

58%

3248-2345 (5593)

ojg

Liberty

Invested

$120.97

Value

$124.93

PnL

+$3.95

Record

43%

838-1096 (1934)

betdgeCTR

New Mexico State

Invested

$247

Value

$71.25

PnL

-$175.75

Record

49%

1247-1285 (2532)

VeryLucky888<$100

Liberty

Invested

$52.42

Value

$57.04

PnL

+$4.62

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

tradecraft<$100

Liberty

Invested

$21.48

Value

$16.91

PnL

-$4.57

Record

51%

6523-6284 (12807)

ferrariChampions2026CTR<$100

New Mexico State

Invested

$12.8

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$9.24

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

Research grade

NeutralLiberty at 94%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Liberty

11 of 16 top traders (69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

25h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Liberty. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLiberty 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLiberty 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedLiberty 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Liberty 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Liberty wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.