Kent State vs. Bowling Green: O/U 49.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 62¢ · $660 held · ended Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 100%
$660.25
-$385.04
53.8¢ → 62¢
+15% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 54¢ | $426.06 | $240.64 | -$185.41 | 58% 3802-2782 (6584) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 54¢ | $269.99 | $152.5 | -$117.5 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
65 6512395314597884 | Overavg 51.7¢ | $204.01 | $120.24 | -$83.77 | 51% 3172-3071 (6243) |
PA Pan9X | Overavg 54.5¢ | $103.06 | $72.96 | +$14.9 | 49% 443-470 (913) |
PR primm<$100 | Overavg 59.6¢ | $47.7 | $51.2 | +$3.5 | 61% 855-553 (1408) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $39.47 | $22.71 | -$16.76 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
RN1Invested
$426.06
Value
$240.64
PnL
-$185.41
Record
58%
3802-2782 (6584)
Invested
$269.99
Value
$152.5
PnL
-$117.5
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
Invested
$204.01
Value
$120.24
PnL
-$83.77
Record
51%
3172-3071 (6243)
Invested
$103.06
Value
$72.96
PnL
+$14.9
Record
49%
443-470 (913)
Invested
$47.7
Value
$51.2
PnL
+$3.5
Record
61%
855-553 (1408)
Invested
$39.47
Value
$22.71
PnL
-$16.76
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.