Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Kent State, while the market favors Bowling Green (54%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Bowling Green (-10.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Kent State (50%) · Kent State at 46¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 11

Bowling Green54¢Kent State46¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kent State

Consensus Traders

Kent State 50%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$106.01

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 46¢

-20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralKent State at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Bowling Green 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Bowling Green54%

Kent State46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Bowling Green5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,949

Combined PnL+$329.53

Kent State5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,925

Combined PnL-$435.55

Bowling Green — 50%Kent State — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Kent State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKent State 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBowling Green 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bowling Green 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Bowling Greenavg 51¢	$937.8	$1.0K	+$73.86	58% 3828-2805 (6633)
PR primmCTR	Kent Stateavg 48.5¢	$935.45	$800.16	-$135.29	61% 855-553 (1408)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Kent Stateavg 82.3¢	$671.33	$388.33	-$283	56% 502-393 (895)
38 38791873984189	Bowling Greenavg 22.7¢	$132.22	$328.71	+$196.49	48% 959-1032 (1991)
65 6512395314597884	Bowling Greenavg 50.1¢	$111.05	$129.7	+$18.65	51% 3172-3073 (6245)
PA Pan9X	Bowling Greenavg 50.6¢	$109.41	$118.89	+$9.49	49% 446-472 (918)
BI biying88888CTR<$100	Kent Stateavg 49.5¢	$99	$83	-$16	27% 63-170 (233)
CM cm2897<$100	Bowling Greenavg 10¢	$9	$40.05	+$31.05	49% 1097-1127 (2224)
SH shiifooCTR<$100	Kent Stateavg 48¢	$10.08	$8.92	-$1.15	63% 1314-788 (2102)
JU justaluckydudeCTR<$100	Kent Stateavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.25	-$0.1	30% 134-317 (451)

RN1

Bowling Green

Invested

$937.8

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$73.86

Record

58%

3828-2805 (6633)

primmCTR

Kent State

Invested

$935.45

Value

$800.16

PnL

-$135.29

Record

61%

855-553 (1408)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Kent State

Invested

$671.33

Value

$388.33

PnL

-$283

Record

56%

502-393 (895)

38791873984189

Bowling Green

Invested

$132.22

Value

$328.71

PnL

+$196.49

Record

48%

959-1032 (1991)

6512395314597884

Bowling Green

Invested

$111.05

Value

$129.7

PnL

+$18.65

Record

51%

3172-3073 (6245)

Pan9X

Bowling Green

Invested

$109.41

Value

$118.89

PnL

+$9.49

Record

49%

446-472 (918)

biying88888CTR<$100

Kent State

Invested

$99

Value

$83

PnL

-$16

Record

27%

63-170 (233)

cm2897<$100

Bowling Green

Invested

Value

$40.05

PnL

+$31.05

Record

49%

1097-1127 (2224)

shiifooCTR<$100

Kent State

Invested

$10.08

Value

$8.92

PnL

-$1.15

Record

63%

1314-788 (2102)

justaluckydudeCTR<$100

Kent State

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.25

PnL

-$0.1

Record

30%

134-317 (451)

Research grade

NeutralKent State at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Kent State

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Bowling Green 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Kent State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKent State 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedBowling Green 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Bowling Green 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kent State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.