Spread: Kennesaw State (-20.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Sam Houston (60%) · Sam Houston at 60¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Kennesaw State40¢Sam Houston60¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sam Houston

Consensus Traders

Sam Houston 60%

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

$329.38

Smart Money Entry

76.2¢ → 60¢

-21% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSam Houston at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sam Houston

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Kennesaw State40%

Sam Houston60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Sam Houston6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares3,698

Combined PnL-$307.77

Kennesaw State4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,983

Combined PnL+$637.14

Sam Houston — 60%Kennesaw State — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Sam Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKennesaw State 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Sam Houston 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189	Sam Houstonavg 76.8¢	$2.1K	$1.6K	-$297.83	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
VE VenusianCTR	Kennesaw Stateavg 23¢	$574.66	$986.75	+$412.1	37% 991-1715 (2706)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Sam Houstonavg 76.2¢	$467.08	$466.04	-$1.04	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
LI LimousinCTR	Kennesaw Stateavg 24¢	$151.61	$296.9	+$145.29	36% 975-1701 (2676)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Kennesaw Stateavg 24¢	$189.28	$260.26	+$70.98	37% 1002-1720 (2722)
PA Pan9X	Sam Houstonavg 76.8¢	$172.8	$171	-$1.8	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
65 6512395314597884	Sam Houstonavg 69¢	$138	$131	-$7	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
GA Gaditima	Sam Houstonavg 76¢	$109.19	$109.19	-$0	48% 280-300 (580)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 23¢	$14.95	$23.72	+$8.77	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
GH ghorrock<$100	Sam Houstonavg 77¢	$7.76	$7.66	-$0.1	53% 1811-1610 (3421)

38791873984189

Sam Houston

Invested

$2,076.98

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$297.83

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

VenusianCTR

Kennesaw State

Invested

$574.66

Value

$986.75

PnL

+$412.1

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Sam Houston

Invested

$467.08

Value

$466.04

PnL

-$1.04

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

LimousinCTR

Kennesaw State

Invested

$151.61

Value

$296.9

PnL

+$145.29

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

LightParadoxCTR

Kennesaw State

Invested

$189.28

Value

$260.26

PnL

+$70.98

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

Pan9X

Sam Houston

Invested

$172.8

Value

$171

PnL

-$1.8

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

6512395314597884

Sam Houston

Invested

$138

Value

$131

PnL

-$7

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Gaditima

Sam Houston

Invested

$109.19

Value

$109.19

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

280-300 (580)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$14.95

Value

$23.72

PnL

+$8.77

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

ghorrock<$100

Sam Houston

Invested

$7.76

Value

$7.66

PnL

-$0.1

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

Research grade

NeutralSam Houston at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Sam Houston

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Sam Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKennesaw State 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Sam Houston 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sam Houston wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance62.2%

60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$60.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

160.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.