Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Sam Houston, while the market favors Kennesaw State (79%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Kennesaw State (-16.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Sam Houston (64%) · Sam Houston at 21¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Kennesaw State79¢Sam Houston21¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sam Houston

Consensus Traders

Sam Houston 64%

Total Value

$7.1K

Combined PnL

-$634.17

Smart Money Entry

53.3¢ → 21¢

-61% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSam Houston at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sam Houston

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Kennesaw State 79%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kennesaw State79%

Sam Houston21%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kennesaw State4 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares7,745

Combined PnL+$211.4

Sam Houston7 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares7,787

Combined PnL-$845.57

Kennesaw State — 36%Sam Houston — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Sam Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKennesaw State 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedSam Houston 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sam Houston 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Kennesaw Stateavg 50.7¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$123.04	59% 932-653 (1585)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Sam Houstonavg 49¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$248.27	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
RN1CTR	Sam Houstonavg 50¢	$793.96	$659.4	-$134.56	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
38 38791873984189CTR	Sam Houstonavg 62.6¢	$860.81	$570.93	-$289.89	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
MA MadridTime	Kennesaw Stateavg 31¢	$264.26	$434.75	+$170.49	38% 1060-1756 (2816)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Sam Houstonavg 49¢	$336.54	$353.66	+$17.13	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
LI Limousin	Kennesaw Stateavg 31.5¢	$214.7	$347.96	+$133.26	37% 1030-1762 (2792)
LI LightParadox	Kennesaw Stateavg 43.9¢	$291.85	$322.54	+$30.69	37% 1053-1783 (2836)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Sam Houstonavg 68.8¢	$351.15	$211.75	-$139.4	55% 1630-1337 (2967)
PA Pan9XCTR	Sam Houstonavg 57.4¢	$175.15	$126.57	-$48.57	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Sam Houstonavg 69¢	$6.96	$4.94	-$2.02	53% 1854-1648 (3502)

primm

Kennesaw State

Invested

$2,812.57

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$123.04

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Sam Houston

Invested

$1,622.02

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$248.27

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

RN1CTR

Sam Houston

Invested

$793.96

Value

$659.4

PnL

-$134.56

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

38791873984189CTR

Sam Houston

Invested

$860.81

Value

$570.93

PnL

-$289.89

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

MadridTime

Kennesaw State

Invested

$264.26

Value

$434.75

PnL

+$170.49

Record

38%

1060-1756 (2816)

6512395314597884CTR

Sam Houston

Invested

$336.54

Value

$353.66

PnL

+$17.13

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

Limousin

Kennesaw State

Invested

$214.7

Value

$347.96

PnL

+$133.26

Record

37%

1030-1762 (2792)

LightParadox

Kennesaw State

Invested

$291.85

Value

$322.54

PnL

+$30.69

Record

37%

1053-1783 (2836)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Sam Houston

Invested

$351.15

Value

$211.75

PnL

-$139.4

Record

55%

1630-1337 (2967)

Pan9XCTR

Sam Houston

Invested

$175.15

Value

$126.57

PnL

-$48.57

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Sam Houston

Invested

$6.96

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$2.02

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

Research grade

AvoidSam Houston at 21%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Sam Houston

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Kennesaw State 79%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

64% of non-arb traders are on Sam Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKennesaw State 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedSam Houston 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Sam Houston 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sam Houston wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance22.9%

21.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$337.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

437.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.