Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Sam Houston, while the market favors Kennesaw State (83%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Kennesaw State (-14.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Sam Houston (56%) · Sam Houston at 17¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Kennesaw State83¢Sam Houston17¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Sam Houston

Consensus Traders

Sam Houston 56%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$128.84

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 17¢

-68% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidSam Houston at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sam Houston

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Kennesaw State 83%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kennesaw State83%

Sam Houston17%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kennesaw State4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,781

Combined PnL+$215.22

Sam Houston5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,574

Combined PnL-$344.06

Kennesaw State — 44%Sam Houston — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Sam Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKennesaw State 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Sam Houston 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Kennesaw Stateavg 53.2¢	$992.63	$1.0K	+$23.88	59% 932-653 (1585)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Sam Houstonavg 47¢	$797.83	$636.91	-$160.92	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
LI Limousin	Kennesaw Stateavg 33¢	$274.43	$449.06	+$174.63	37% 1030-1762 (2792)
38 38791873984189CTR	Sam Houstonavg 67¢	$475.32	$326.34	-$148.98	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sam Houstonavg 66.8¢	$66.82	$46	-$20.82	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
VE Venusian<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 34.2¢	$16.45	$25.96	+$9.52	37% 1035-1784 (2819)
LI LightParadox<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 34¢	$12.23	$19.42	+$7.19	37% 1053-1783 (2836)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Sam Houstonavg 66¢	$23.74	$16.55	-$7.19	55% 1630-1337 (2967)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Sam Houstonavg 66.3¢	$20.06	$13.91	-$6.15	53% 1854-1648 (3502)

primm

Kennesaw State

Invested

$992.63

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$23.88

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Sam Houston

Invested

$797.83

Value

$636.91

PnL

-$160.92

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

Limousin

Kennesaw State

Invested

$274.43

Value

$449.06

PnL

+$174.63

Record

37%

1030-1762 (2792)

38791873984189CTR

Sam Houston

Invested

$475.32

Value

$326.34

PnL

-$148.98

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Sam Houston

Invested

$66.82

Value

$46

PnL

-$20.82

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

Venusian<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$16.45

Value

$25.96

PnL

+$9.52

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

LightParadox<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$12.23

Value

$19.42

PnL

+$7.19

Record

37%

1053-1783 (2836)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Sam Houston

Invested

$23.74

Value

$16.55

PnL

-$7.19

Record

55%

1630-1337 (2967)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Sam Houston

Invested

$20.06

Value

$13.91

PnL

-$6.15

Record

53%

1854-1648 (3502)

Research grade

AvoidSam Houston at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Sam Houston

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Kennesaw State 83%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Sam Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKennesaw State 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Sam Houston 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sam Houston wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.7%

17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$433.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

533.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.