Spread: Kennesaw State (-13.5)

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Kennesaw State (44%) · Kennesaw State at 84¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Kennesaw State84¢Sam Houston16¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kennesaw State

Consensus Traders

Kennesaw State 44%

Total Value

$3.6K

Combined PnL

-$85.52

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 84¢

+46% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralKennesaw State at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kennesaw State

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kennesaw State84%

Sam Houston16%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kennesaw State4 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,832

Combined PnL+$218.49

Sam Houston5 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares3,436

Combined PnL-$304.01

Kennesaw State — 44%Sam Houston — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Kennesaw State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Sam Houston) and the top 1000 (8 on Kennesaw State) disagree here.

ctrKennesaw State 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSam Houston 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Kennesaw State 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Kennesaw Stateavg 57.8¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$175.6	59% 932-653 (1585)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Sam Houstonavg 42¢	$695.16	$562.75	-$132.41	50% 2560-2519 (5079)
RN1CTR	Sam Houstonavg 42¢	$338.74	$303.25	-$35.49	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Kennesaw Stateavg 58.9¢	$215.42	$241.57	+$26.16	55% 1630-1337 (2967)
38 38791873984189CTR	Sam Houstonavg 42.3¢	$242.98	$195.22	-$47.76	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sam Houstonavg 52¢	$85.55	$55.95	-$29.6	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Sam Houstonavg 43¢	$107.5	$48.75	-$58.75	39% 578-906 (1484)
LI LightParadox<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 38¢	$19	$29	+$10	37% 1053-1783 (2836)
MA MadridTime<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 40¢	$14.96	$21.69	+$6.73	38% 1060-1756 (2816)

primm

Kennesaw State

Invested

$1,953.08

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$175.6

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Sam Houston

Invested

$695.16

Value

$562.75

PnL

-$132.41

Record

50%

2560-2519 (5079)

RN1CTR

Sam Houston

Invested

$338.74

Value

$303.25

PnL

-$35.49

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Kennesaw State

Invested

$215.42

Value

$241.57

PnL

+$26.16

Record

55%

1630-1337 (2967)

38791873984189CTR

Sam Houston

Invested

$242.98

Value

$195.22

PnL

-$47.76

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Sam Houston

Invested

$85.55

Value

$55.95

PnL

-$29.6

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Sam Houston

Invested

$107.5

Value

$48.75

PnL

-$58.75

Record

39%

578-906 (1484)

LightParadox<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$19

Value

$29

PnL

+$10

Record

37%

1053-1783 (2836)

MadridTime<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$14.96

Value

$21.69

PnL

+$6.73

Record

38%

1060-1756 (2816)

Research grade

NeutralKennesaw State at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Kennesaw State

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Kennesaw State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Sam Houston) and the top 1000 (8 on Kennesaw State) disagree here.

ctrKennesaw State 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedSam Houston 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Kennesaw State 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kennesaw State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.6%

84.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$16.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

116.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.