Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Sam Houston, while the market favors Kennesaw State (67%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Kennesaw State (-10.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Sam Houston (56%) · Sam Houston at 34¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Kennesaw State67¢Sam Houston33¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Sam Houston

Consensus Traders

Sam Houston 56%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$92.17

Smart Money Entry

54.7¢ → 33.5¢

-39% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralSam Houston at 34%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Sam Houston

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Kennesaw State 67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kennesaw State67%

Sam Houston34%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kennesaw State4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,730

Combined PnL+$312.8

Sam Houston5 traders

Total Value$497.52

Total Shares1,650

Combined PnL-$404.97

Kennesaw State — 44%Sam Houston — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Sam Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKennesaw State 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Sam Houston 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Kennesaw Stateavg 45¢	$519.79	$727.7	+$207.91	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
MA MadridTime	Kennesaw Stateavg 44¢	$241.84	$346.27	+$104.43	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
38 38791873984189CTR	Sam Houstonavg 55¢	$550	$300	-$250	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Sam Houstonavg 56¢	$280	$150	-$130	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Sam Houstonavg 55.5¢	$49.95	$27	-$22.95	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
RN1CTR<$100	Sam Houstonavg 34¢	$17	$17.5	+$0.5	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
LI Limousin<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 43¢	$8.6	$9	+$0.4	36% 979-1704 (2683)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Sam Houstonavg 55¢	$5.54	$3.02	-$2.52	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
VE Venusian<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 44¢	$2.36	$2.41	+$0.05	37% 996-1715 (2711)

LightParadox

Kennesaw State

Invested

$519.79

Value

$727.7

PnL

+$207.91

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

MadridTime

Kennesaw State

Invested

$241.84

Value

$346.27

PnL

+$104.43

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

38791873984189CTR

Sam Houston

Invested

$550

Value

$300

PnL

-$250

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Sam Houston

Invested

$280

Value

$150

PnL

-$130

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Sam Houston

Invested

$49.95

Value

$27

PnL

-$22.95

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

RN1CTR<$100

Sam Houston

Invested

$17

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

Limousin<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$8.6

Value

PnL

+$0.4

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Sam Houston

Invested

$5.54

Value

$3.02

PnL

-$2.52

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

Venusian<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$2.36

Value

$2.41

PnL

+$0.05

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

Research grade

NeutralSam Houston at 34%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Sam Houston

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Kennesaw State 67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Sam Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrKennesaw State 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Sam Houston 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Sam Houston wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.6%

33.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$180.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

280.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.