Kennesaw State vs. Sam Houston

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Kennesaw State (40%) · Kennesaw State at 96¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 14

Kennesaw State96¢Sam Houston4¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Kennesaw State

Consensus Traders

Kennesaw State 40%

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

-$165.88

Smart Money Entry

74.5¢ → 95.5¢

+28% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralKennesaw State at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Kennesaw State

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Kennesaw State96%

Sam Houston5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Kennesaw State4 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares10,825

Combined PnL+$33.46

Sam Houston6 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares10,338

Combined PnL-$199.34

Kennesaw State — 40%Sam Houston — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Kennesaw State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Sam Houston) and the top 1000 (6 on Kennesaw State) disagree here.

ctrSam Houston 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedSam Houston 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Kennesaw State 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Kennesaw Stateavg 74¢	$7.5K	$7.5K	+$0	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Sam Houstonavg 26¢	$2.6K	$2.4K	-$203.79	48% 635-675 (1310)
OJ ojg	Kennesaw Stateavg 86.8¢	$422.86	$454.29	+$31.43	48% 230-247 (477)
PU purplegatto	Kennesaw Stateavg 73¢	$148.08	$150.11	+$2.03	68% 2645-1233 (3878)
tradecraft<$100	Kennesaw Stateavg 74¢	$37	$37	+$0	31% 356-791 (1147)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Sam Houstonavg 7¢	$2.13	$7.3	+$5.17	48% 281-301 (582)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Sam Houstonavg 24¢	$6.14	$6.14	+$0	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Sam Houstonavg 25¢	$6.25	$6	-$0.25	39% 1089-1673 (2762)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Sam Houstonavg 24¢	$4.8	$4.8	+$0	44% 87-112 (199)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Sam Houstonavg 6¢	$2.88	$2.4	-$0.48	37% 1003-1721 (2724)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Kennesaw State

Invested

$7,476.29

Value

$7.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Sam Houston

Invested

$2,649.21

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$203.79

Record

48%

635-675 (1310)

ojg

Kennesaw State

Invested

$422.86

Value

$454.29

PnL

+$31.43

Record

48%

230-247 (477)

purplegatto

Kennesaw State

Invested

$148.08

Value

$150.11

PnL

+$2.03

Record

68%

2645-1233 (3878)

tradecraft<$100

Kennesaw State

Invested

$37

Value

$37

PnL

+$0

Record

31%

356-791 (1147)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Sam Houston

Invested

$2.13

Value

$7.3

PnL

+$5.17

Record

48%

281-301 (582)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Sam Houston

Invested

$6.14

Value

$6.14

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Sam Houston

Invested

$6.25

Value

PnL

-$0.25

Record

39%

1089-1673 (2762)

efntrickCTR<$100

Sam Houston

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

87-112 (199)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Sam Houston

Invested

$2.88

Value

$2.4

PnL

-$0.48

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

Research grade

NeutralKennesaw State at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Kennesaw State

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Kennesaw State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Sam Houston) and the top 1000 (6 on Kennesaw State) disagree here.

ctrSam Houston 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedSam Houston 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Kennesaw State 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Kennesaw State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.7%

95.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.