Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (96%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Kansas vs. West Virginia: O/U 73.5

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (73%) · Over at 4.0¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Over4¢Under96¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 73%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

50.4¢ → 4¢

-92% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Under 96%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over4%

Under96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$807.35

Total Shares1,199

Combined PnL+$53.7

Over8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares4,241

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Under — 27%Over — 73%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CM cm2897	Underavg 49¢	$502.25	$645.75	+$143.5	49% 1179-1209 (2388)
RN1CTR	Overavg 56¢	$460.46	$302.37	-$158.1	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 50.7¢	$897.04	$238.91	-$658.13	59% 948-662 (1610)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Overavg 55¢	$303.41	$204.11	-$99.3	50% 2576-2535 (5111)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 55¢	$338.29	$136.41	-$73.88	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 54¢	$181.09	$124.08	-$57.01	50% 3828-3802 (7630)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Underavg 94.8¢	$1.1K	$90.67	-$118.09	55% 1658-1357 (3015)
PA Pan9XCTR	Overavg 52¢	$109.46	$71.05	-$26.26	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Underavg 52¢	$42.64	$70.93	+$28.29	48% 543-600 (1143)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$6	$3	-$3	45% 707-867 (1574)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$5.98	$2.99	-$2.99	47% 1028-1153 (2181)

cm2897

Under

Invested

$502.25

Value

$645.75

PnL

+$143.5

Record

49%

1179-1209 (2388)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$460.46

Value

$302.37

PnL

-$158.1

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$897.04

Value

$238.91

PnL

-$658.13

Record

59%

948-662 (1610)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Over

Invested

$303.41

Value

$204.11

PnL

-$99.3

Record

50%

2576-2535 (5111)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$338.29

Value

$136.41

PnL

-$73.88

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$181.09

Value

$124.08

PnL

-$57.01

Record

50%

3828-3802 (7630)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Under

Invested

$1,117.38

Value

$90.67

PnL

-$118.09

Record

55%

1658-1357 (3015)

Pan9XCTR

Over

Invested

$109.46

Value

$71.05

PnL

-$26.26

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

justaluckydude<$100

Under

Invested

$42.64

Value

$70.93

PnL

+$28.29

Record

48%

543-600 (1143)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

PnL

-$3

Record

45%

707-867 (1574)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.98

Value

$2.99

PnL

-$2.99

Record

47%

1028-1153 (2181)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 4%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Under 96%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance5.2%

4.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1809.31

Max Loss

-$100.00

1909.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.