Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (92%). 3 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Kansas vs. West Virginia: O/U 69.5

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 8.0¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over8¢Under92¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$210.06

Smart Money Entry

52.5¢ → 8¢

-85% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 92%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares2,021

Combined PnL+$417.98

Over3 traders

Total Value$820.28

Total Shares2,899

Combined PnL-$628.04

Under — 63%Over — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 41.3¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$134.95	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
└ Under leg	Underavg 41.3¢	$984.56	$1.1K	+$146.89
└ Over leg	Overavg 54¢	$431.53	$419.6	-$11.94
JU justaluckydude	Underavg 45.9¢	$391.83	$653.31	+$261.48	48% 543-600 (1143)
PR primmCTR	Overavg 54¢	$1.3K	$575.44	-$747.64	59% 948-662 (1610)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 41.8¢	$226.28	$247.75	+$23.88	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
└ Under leg	Underavg 41.8¢	$170.42	$193.47	+$23.36
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$53.77	$54.29	+$0.52
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 44¢	$196.24	$240.84	+$44.6	56% 3699-2861 (6560)
CM cm2897	Underavg 38¢	$190	$240	+$50	49% 1179-1209 (2388)
PA Pan9X	Underavg 38.1¢	$179.66	$185.8	+$34.95	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Underavg 42¢	$121.8	$185.6	+$63.8	12% 61-464 (525)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 32¢	$16	$23.75	+$7.75	52% 895-837 (1732)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Overavg 58¢	$900.2	$4	+$75	55% 1658-1357 (3015)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,416.09

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$134.95

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

Both legs:

Under$984.5641.3¢+$146.89

Over$431.5354¢-$11.94

justaluckydude

Under

Invested

$391.83

Value

$653.31

PnL

+$261.48

Record

48%

543-600 (1143)

primmCTR

Over

Invested

$1,323.08

Value

$575.44

PnL

-$747.64

Record

59%

948-662 (1610)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$226.28

Value

$247.75

PnL

+$23.88

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

Both legs:

Under$170.4241.8¢+$23.36

Over$53.7752¢+$0.52

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$196.24

Value

$240.84

PnL

+$44.6

Record

56%

3699-2861 (6560)

cm2897

Under

Invested

$190

Value

$240

PnL

+$50

Record

49%

1179-1209 (2388)

Pan9X

Under

Invested

$179.66

Value

$185.8

PnL

+$34.95

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Under

Invested

$121.8

Value

$185.6

PnL

+$63.8

Record

12%

61-464 (525)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$16

Value

$23.75

PnL

+$7.75

Record

52%

895-837 (1732)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Over

Invested

$900.2

Value

PnL

+$75

Record

55%

1658-1357 (3015)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 8 top traders (38%)Underdog side (market favors Under 92%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-15 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.4%

8.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$962.76

Max Loss

-$100.00

1062.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.