Spread: James Madison (-4.5)
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold UConn (75%) · UConn at 51¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
UConn
8
UConn 75%
1 arb excluded
$2.7K
$7.76
49.6¢ → 50.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUConn at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Mature
21h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
86% of non-arb traders are on UConn. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | James Madisonavg 50¢ | $989.99 | $997.15 | +$10 | 48% 3214-3513 (6727) |
| └ James Madison leg | James Madisonavg 50¢ | $749.99 | $750 | +$0 | |
| └ UConn leg | UConnavg 48¢ | $237.27 | $247.16 | +$10 | |
LI Limousin | UConnavg 50¢ | $764.89 | $772.54 | +$7.65 | 36% 933-1644 (2577) |
OD Oddstorm | UConnavg 49¢ | $490 | $500 | +$10 | 32% 99-207 (306) |
 12monkeysCTR | James Madisonavg 52¢ | $260 | $247.5 | -$12.5 | 38% 18-30 (48) |
HI hi774c | UConnavg 49¢ | $139.52 | $142.37 | +$2.85 | 22% 179-618 (797) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | James Madisonavg 50¢ | $22.5 | $22.5 | +$0 | 50% 1587-1614 (3201) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | UConnavg 51¢ | $6.85 | $6.72 | -$0.13 | 52% 1721-1568 (3289) |
HO HomeRunHazard<$100 | UConnavg 51¢ | $5.1 | $5 | -$0.1 | 56% 3687-2847 (6534) |
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100 | UConnavg 50¢ | $5 | $5 | +$0 | 49% 635-674 (1309) |
Invested
$989.99
Value
$997.15
PnL
+$10
Record
48%
3214-3513 (6727)
Both legs:
Invested
$764.89
Value
$772.54
PnL
+$7.65
Record
36%
933-1644 (2577)
Invested
$490
Value
$500
PnL
+$10
Record
32%
99-207 (306)
12monkeysCTRInvested
$260
Value
$247.5
PnL
-$12.5
Record
38%
18-30 (48)
Invested
$139.52
Value
$142.37
PnL
+$2.85
Record
22%
179-618 (797)
Invested
$22.5
Value
$22.5
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1587-1614 (3201)
Invested
$6.85
Value
$6.72
PnL
-$0.13
Record
52%
1721-1568 (3289)
Invested
$5.1
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.1
Record
56%
3687-2847 (6534)
Invested
$5
Value
$5
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
635-674 (1309)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.