James Madison vs. Southern Miss: O/U 59.5

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Over (82%) · Over at 52¢ · $38K held · ended Nov 6

Over52¢Under48¢Ended Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 82%

6 arb excluded

Total Value

$38.5K

Combined PnL

$2.7K

Smart Money Entry

47¢ → 52¢

+11% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

14 of 17 top traders (82%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over14 traders

Total Value$24.3K

Total Shares42,964

Combined PnL+$3.0K

Under3 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares17,238

Combined PnL-$239.19

Over — 82%Under — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 69% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 45.5¢	$9.4K	$9.9K	+$431.54	54% 18234-15347 (33581)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Overavg 49.7¢	$7.5K	$9.8K	+$2.3K	47% 511-584 (1095)
FE ferrariChampions2026CTR	Underavg 51¢	$6.8K	$6.6K	-$200.68	42% 8015-11202 (19217)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 53.5¢	$2.5K	$2.1K	-$574.69	53% 61517-53815 (115332)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.5¢	$1.5K	$1.1K	-$615.3
└ Over leg	Overavg 59¢	$959.38	$999.99	+$40.61
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 55.5¢	$2.9K	$1.6K	-$196.35	48% 61419-66265 (127684)
└ Under leg	Underavg 55.5¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$225.93
└ Over leg	Overavg 46.6¢	$467.58	$497.16	+$29.58
CM cm2897CTR	Underavg 39.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$44.75	51% 2168-2100 (4268)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Underavg 54.4¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$36.69	64% 9984-5568 (15552)
└ Under leg	Underavg 54.4¢	$522.34	$538.05	+$15.72
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$482.56	$503.53	+$20.97
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 61¢	$1.2K	$1.0K	-$141.84	51% 4775-4634 (9409)
└ Over leg	Overavg 61¢	$614.51	$619.64	+$5.13
└ Under leg	Underavg 52.1¢	$564.41	$417.44	-$146.97
VeryLucky888	Overavg 45.5¢	$1.2K	$962.4	+$50.97	58% 46840-33772 (80612)
VE Venusian	Overavg 45.7¢	$870.48	$913.44	+$42.96	50% 1498-1469 (2967)
PR primm	Overavg 44.8¢	$698.6	$749.28	+$50.68	47% 1273-1454 (2727)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 44.5¢	$462.47	$498.62	+$36.15	51% 37791-37025 (74816)
betdge	Overavg 48.7¢	$487.49	$480	-$7.49	49% 1226-1268 (2494)
SU SunflowaRebuildYear	Overavg 45.7¢	$391.1	$410.4	+$19.3	46% 431-513 (944)
nigiri99CTR	Underavg 54.9¢	$727.43	$407.68	+$6.25	46% 8625-10276 (18901)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Overavg 45¢	$240	$288	+$48	51% 1929-1866 (3795)
MA MadridTime	Overavg 45.7¢	$237.22	$248.93	+$11.71	50% 1440-1447 (2887)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Overavg 52.4¢	$140.71	$131.42	-$9.29	53% 12169-10676 (22845)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.4¢	$104.79	$92	-$12.79
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.2¢	$35.92	$39.42	+$3.5
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Underavg 53.7¢	$189.76	$49.91	-$28.82	54% 9826-8264 (18090)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53.7¢	$28.47	$25.71	-$18.56
└ Over leg	Overavg 60.5¢	$28.46	$24.21	-$10.27
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 51¢	$32.13	$32.45	+$0.31	47% 11844-13618 (25462)
tradecraft<$100	Overavg 42.7¢	$28.84	$32.38	+$3.55	51% 6382-6167 (12549)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100	Overavg 51.5¢	$12.89	$12.88	-$0.01	60% 2776-1883 (4659)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 45.7¢	$5.74	$6.03	+$0.28	50% 21258-21529 (42787)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$9,445.85

Value

$9.9K

PnL

+$431.54

Record

54%

18234-15347 (33581)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Over

Invested

$7,467.67

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$2.3K

Record

47%

511-584 (1095)

ferrariChampions2026CTR

Under

Invested

$6,839.06

Value

$6.6K

PnL

-$200.68

Record

42%

8015-11202 (19217)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,490.37

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$574.69

Record

53%

61517-53815 (115332)

Both legs:

Under$1,530.9953.5¢-$615.3

Over$959.3859¢+$40.61

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,892.74

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$196.35

Record

48%

61419-66265 (127684)

Both legs:

Under$1,206.4555.5¢-$225.93

Over$467.5846.6¢+$29.58

cm2897CTR

Under

Invested

$1,237.78

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$44.75

Record

51%

2168-2100 (4268)

NM-PARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,004.9

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$36.69

Record

64%

9984-5568 (15552)

Both legs:

Under$522.3454.4¢+$15.72

Over$482.5646¢+$20.97

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,178.92

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$141.84

Record

51%

4775-4634 (9409)

Both legs:

Over$614.5161¢+$5.13

Under$564.4152.1¢-$146.97

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$1,167.39

Value

$962.4

PnL

+$50.97

Record

58%

46840-33772 (80612)

Venusian

Over

Invested

$870.48

Value

$913.44

PnL

+$42.96

Record

50%

1498-1469 (2967)

primm

Over

Invested

$698.6

Value

$749.28

PnL

+$50.68

Record

47%

1273-1454 (2727)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$462.47

Value

$498.62

PnL

+$36.15

Record

51%

37791-37025 (74816)

betdge

Over

Invested

$487.49

Value

$480

PnL

-$7.49

Record

49%

1226-1268 (2494)

SunflowaRebuildYear

Over

Invested

$391.1

Value

$410.4

PnL

+$19.3

Record

46%

431-513 (944)

nigiri99CTR

Under

Invested

$727.43

Value

$407.68

PnL

+$6.25

Record

46%

8625-10276 (18901)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Over

Invested

$240

Value

$288

PnL

+$48

Record

51%

1929-1866 (3795)

MadridTime

Over

Invested

$237.22

Value

$248.93

PnL

+$11.71

Record

50%

1440-1447 (2887)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Over

Invested

$140.71

Value

$131.42

PnL

-$9.29

Record

53%

12169-10676 (22845)

Both legs:

Over$104.7952.4¢-$12.79

Under$35.9249.2¢+$3.5

Pan9XARB<$100

Under

Invested

$189.76

Value

$49.91

PnL

-$28.82

Record

54%

9826-8264 (18090)

Both legs:

Under$28.4753.7¢-$18.56

Over$28.4660.5¢-$10.27

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$32.13

Value

$32.45

PnL

+$0.31

Record

47%

11844-13618 (25462)

tradecraft<$100

Over

Invested

$28.84

Value

$32.38

PnL

+$3.55

Record

51%

6382-6167 (12549)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6e<$100

Over

Invested

$12.89

Value

$12.88

PnL

-$0.01

Record

60%

2776-1883 (4659)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$5.74

Value

$6.03

PnL

+$0.28

Record

50%

21258-21529 (42787)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 52%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

14 of 17 top traders (82%)6 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 67% · 6

Aligned

ctrOver 67% · 12

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Over 69% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.