Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Southern Miss, while the market favors James Madison (51%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: James Madison (-13.5)

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Southern Miss (75%) · Southern Miss at 50¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 6

James Madison51¢Southern Miss49¢Ends Fri, Nov 6, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Southern Miss

Consensus Traders

Southern Miss 75%

Total Value

$10.7K

Combined PnL

$156.88

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 49.5¢

+1% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralSouthern Miss at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Southern Miss

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors James Madison 51%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

James Madison51%

Southern Miss50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Southern Miss9 traders

Total Value$8.9K

Total Shares17,930

Combined PnL+$138.76

James Madison3 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares3,472

Combined PnL+$18.11

Southern Miss — 75%James Madison — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Southern Miss. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSouthern Miss 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpSouthern Miss 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrJames Madison 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Southern Miss 75% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Southern Missavg 49¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$41.77	48% 347-378 (725)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Southern Missavg 48.9¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$82.26	54% 18231-15340 (33571)
SE sentrio	James Madisonavg 50¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$10.72	50% 25814-25509 (51323)
HI hi774cCTR	Southern Missavg 49¢	$581.87	$593.74	+$5.94	46% 5200-6047 (11247)
nigiri99	James Madisonavg 54.7¢	$560.04	$511.5	-$5.11	46% 8591-10242 (18833)
NM NM-PCTR	Southern Missavg 49¢	$171.5	$175	+$1.75	64% 9921-5527 (15448)
GC GC-PCTR	Southern Missavg 49¢	$171.5	$175	+$3.5	64% 9962-5595 (15557)
38 38791873984189	James Madisonavg 51.9¢	$968.72	$155.4	+$12.51	48% 61037-65871 (126908)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Southern Missavg 46.7¢	$41.6	$44.5	+$2.9	51% 1376-1340 (2716)
IC ic4creamCTR<$100	Southern Missavg 50.7¢	$18.27	$18	-$0.27	56% 2770-2186 (4956)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Southern Missavg 48.7¢	$9.75	$10	+$0.25	50% 1322-1299 (2621)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Southern Missavg 46¢	$7.65	$8.32	+$0.67	58% 21162-15379 (36541)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Southern Miss

Invested

$4,093.62

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$41.77

Record

48%

347-378 (725)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Southern Miss

Invested

$3,680.98

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$82.26

Record

54%

18231-15340 (33571)

sentrio

James Madison

Invested

$1,072.13

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$10.72

Record

50%

25814-25509 (51323)

hi774cCTR

Southern Miss

Invested

$581.87

Value

$593.74

PnL

+$5.94

Record

46%

5200-6047 (11247)

nigiri99

James Madison

Invested

$560.04

Value

$511.5

PnL

-$5.11

Record

46%

8591-10242 (18833)

NM-PCTR

Southern Miss

Invested

$171.5

Value

$175

PnL

+$1.75

Record

64%

9921-5527 (15448)

GC-PCTR

Southern Miss

Invested

$171.5

Value

$175

PnL

+$3.5

Record

64%

9962-5595 (15557)

38791873984189

James Madison

Invested

$968.72

Value

$155.4

PnL

+$12.51

Record

48%

61037-65871 (126908)

VenusianCTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$41.6

Value

$44.5

PnL

+$2.9

Record

51%

1376-1340 (2716)

ic4creamCTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$18.27

Value

$18

PnL

-$0.27

Record

56%

2770-2186 (4956)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$9.75

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.25

Record

50%

1322-1299 (2621)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Southern Miss

Invested

$7.65

Value

$8.32

PnL

+$0.67

Record

58%

21162-15379 (36541)

Research grade

NeutralSouthern Miss at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Southern Miss

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors James Madison 51%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Southern Miss. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleSouthern Miss 67% · 3

Aligned

sharpSouthern Miss 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrJames Madison 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Southern Miss 75% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Southern Miss wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.