Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Northwestern, while the market favors Iowa (55%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Iowa (-2.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Northwestern (78%) · Northwestern at 46¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 8

Iowa55¢Northwestern45¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Northwestern

Consensus Traders

Northwestern 78%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

-$157.62

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 45.5¢

-6% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNorthwestern at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Northwestern

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Iowa 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Iowa55%

Northwestern46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Iowa2 traders

Total Value$3.2K

Total Shares6,156

Combined PnL-$90.87

Northwestern7 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,960

Combined PnL-$66.75

Iowa — 22%Northwestern — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Northwestern. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIowa 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNorthwestern 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNorthwestern 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNorthwestern 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Northwestern 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Iowaavg 53.5¢	$3.3K	$3.2K	-$91.18	46% 8770-10463 (19233)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Northwesternavg 49¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	+$7.48	54% 18479-15550 (34029)
└ Northwestern leg	Northwesternavg 49¢	$2.0K	$1.9K	-$63.37
└ Iowa leg	Iowaavg 44.9¢	$444.5	$515.35	+$70.85
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR	Northwesternavg 47¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$0	50% 2774-2749 (5523)
VeryLucky888CTR	Northwesternavg 47.5¢	$950	$940	+$10	58% 47503-34297 (81800)
38 38791873984189CTR	Northwesternavg 52¢	$862.58	$758.36	-$81.72	48% 62396-67251 (129647)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Iowaavg 52¢	$544.06	$537.5	-$1.12	64% 10182-5720 (15902)
└ Iowa leg	Iowaavg 52¢	$273	$273	+$2.63
└ Northwestern leg	Northwesternavg 48.2¢	$271.06	$264.5	-$3.75
SN SnakeBallCTR	Northwesternavg 48¢	$256.52	$251.18	+$0	51% 38228-37447 (75675)
GC GC-PCTR	Northwesternavg 47¢	$161	$166.25	+$5.25	64% 10179-5769 (15948)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Iowaavg 51¢	$10.41	$10.61	+$0.31	48% 405-446 (851)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Northwesternavg 47¢	$8.42	$8.42	+$0	58% 21689-15792 (37481)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	Northwesternavg 54¢	$2.7	$2.35	-$0.28	50% 8436-8484 (16920)

nigiri99

Iowa

Invested

$3,281.9

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$91.18

Record

46%

8770-10463 (19233)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$2,452.52

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$7.48

Record

54%

18479-15550 (34029)

Both legs:

Northwestern$2,008.0249¢-$63.37

Iowa$444.544.9¢+$70.85

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR

Northwestern

Invested

$1,149.5

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

2774-2749 (5523)

VeryLucky888CTR

Northwestern

Invested

$950

Value

$940

PnL

+$10

Record

58%

47503-34297 (81800)

38791873984189CTR

Northwestern

Invested

$862.58

Value

$758.36

PnL

-$81.72

Record

48%

62396-67251 (129647)

NM-PARB<$100

Iowa

Invested

$544.06

Value

$537.5

PnL

-$1.12

Record

64%

10182-5720 (15902)

Both legs:

Iowa$27352¢+$2.63

Northwestern$271.0648.2¢-$3.75

SnakeBallCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$256.52

Value

$251.18

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

38228-37447 (75675)

GC-PCTR

Northwestern

Invested

$161

Value

$166.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

64%

10179-5769 (15948)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Iowa

Invested

$10.41

Value

$10.61

PnL

+$0.31

Record

48%

405-446 (851)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$8.42

Value

$8.42

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

21689-15792 (37481)

RLWGCTR<$100

Northwestern

Invested

$2.7

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.28

Record

50%

8436-8484 (16920)

Research grade

NeutralNorthwestern at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Northwestern

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Iowa 55%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on Northwestern. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleIowa 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNorthwestern 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNorthwestern 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNorthwestern 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Northwestern 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Northwestern wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.