Illinois State vs. Youngstown State

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Youngstown State (22%) · Youngstown State at 92¢ · $332 held · ended Nov 14

Illinois State8¢Youngstown State92¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Youngstown State

Consensus Traders

Youngstown State 22%

Total Value

$331.69

Combined PnL

$30.23

Smart Money Entry

70.1¢ → 92¢

+31% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYoungstown State at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Youngstown State

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Illinois State8%

Youngstown State92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Youngstown State2 traders

Total Value$173.87

Total Shares254

Combined PnL-$4.29

Illinois State7 traders

Total Value$157.82

Total Shares471

Combined PnL+$34.52

Youngstown State — 22%Illinois State — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Youngstown Stateavg 70.2¢	$174.96	$170.77	-$4.19	39% 593-921 (1514)
RN1CTR<$100	Illinois Stateavg 29¢	$82.64	$92.61	+$9.97	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Illinois Stateavg 18¢	$20.13	$38.02	+$17.89	38% 1094-1794 (2888)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Illinois Stateavg 22.9¢	$9.47	$14.1	+$4.62	38% 1175-1954 (3129)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Illinois Stateavg 23¢	$6.61	$8.21	+$1.6	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Illinois Stateavg 34¢	$4.08	$4.08	+$0	58% 3692-2676 (6368)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Youngstown Stateavg 64¢	$3.2	$3.1	-$0.1	83% 802-165 (967)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Illinois Stateavg 17¢	$0.2	$0.41	+$0.2	50% 3874-3873 (7747)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Illinois Stateavg 14¢	$0.16	$0.4	+$0.23	48% 547-581 (1128)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Youngstown State

Invested

$174.96

Value

$170.77

PnL

-$4.19

Record

39%

593-921 (1514)

RN1CTR<$100

Illinois State

Invested

$82.64

Value

$92.61

PnL

+$9.97

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Illinois State

Invested

$20.13

Value

$38.02

PnL

+$17.89

Record

38%

1094-1794 (2888)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Illinois State

Invested

$9.47

Value

$14.1

PnL

+$4.62

Record

38%

1175-1954 (3129)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Illinois State

Invested

$6.61

Value

$8.21

PnL

+$1.6

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Illinois State

Invested

$4.08

Value

$4.08

PnL

+$0

Record

58%

3692-2676 (6368)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Youngstown State

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

83%

802-165 (967)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Illinois State

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.41

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

3874-3873 (7747)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Illinois State

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0.23

Record

48%

547-581 (1128)

Research grade

NeutralYoungstown State at 92%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Youngstown State

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Youngstown State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.3%

92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.