Illinois vs. UCLA: O/U 57.5

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 99¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$6.68

Smart Money Entry

88.1¢ → 99.3¢

+13% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over1%

Under99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,253

Combined PnL+$478.61

Over6 traders

Total Value$54.27

Total Shares4,309

Combined PnL-$471.93

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PA pagliacci4	Underavg 99.1¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	+$5.7	65% 60-32 (92)
PR primm	Underavg 62¢	$750.82	$1.2K	+$456.55	59% 899-622 (1521)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Underavg 63¢	$28.09	$44.45	+$16.36	47% 72-82 (154)
RN1CTR	Overavg 19.3¢	$305.7	$21.33	-$284.37	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 1¢	$10.89	$14.7	+$3.81	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 16.8¢	$183.1	$8.74	-$174.36	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 0.8¢	$4	$6.75	+$2.75	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$1.4	$1.97	+$0.57	36% 883-1569 (2452)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 37.7¢	$21.12	$0.78	-$20.33	49% 1349-1396 (2745)

pagliacci4

Under

Invested

$2,969.7

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$5.7

Record

65%

60-32 (92)

primm

Under

Invested

$750.82

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$456.55

Record

59%

899-622 (1521)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Under

Invested

$28.09

Value

$44.45

PnL

+$16.36

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$305.7

Value

$21.33

PnL

-$284.37

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.89

Value

$14.7

PnL

+$3.81

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$183.1

Value

$8.74

PnL

-$174.36

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$6.75

PnL

+$2.75

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.97

PnL

+$0.57

Record

36%

883-1569 (2452)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$21.12

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$20.33

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.