Illinois vs. UCLA: O/U 39.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 70¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 75%
$3.4K
$336.67
53.9¢ → 69.5¢
+29% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GA gagarin59 | Underavg 53.9¢ | $1.0K | $1.3K | +$256.44 | 41% 53-77 (130) |
 RN1 | Underavg 53.5¢ | $896.37 | $913.97 | +$17.59 | 56% 5043-4004 (9047) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Underavg 54.5¢ | $545 | $545 | +$0 | 54% 1316-1100 (2416) |
TA takeormakeCTR | Overavg 44¢ | $396.48 | $477.58 | +$81.1 | 58% 3427-2519 (5946) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 55¢ | $199.1 | $197.29 | -$1.81 | 48% 2922-3218 (6140) |
PR primmCTR<$100 | Overavg 46.5¢ | $17.68 | $15.2 | -$2.48 | 59% 899-622 (1521) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $19.24 | $9.62 | -$9.62 | 49% 1329-1376 (2705) |
JU justaluckydude<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $9.5 | $4.94 | -$4.56 | 44% 418-527 (945) |
Invested
$1,018.34
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$256.44
Record
41%
53-77 (130)
RN1Invested
$896.37
Value
$913.97
PnL
+$17.59
Record
56%
5043-4004 (9047)
Invested
$545
Value
$545
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
1316-1100 (2416)
Invested
$396.48
Value
$477.58
PnL
+$81.1
Record
58%
3427-2519 (5946)
Invested
$199.1
Value
$197.29
PnL
-$1.81
Record
48%
2922-3218 (6140)
Invested
$17.68
Value
$15.2
PnL
-$2.48
Record
59%
899-622 (1521)
Invested
$19.24
Value
$9.62
PnL
-$9.62
Record
49%
1329-1376 (2705)
Invested
$9.5
Value
$4.94
PnL
-$4.56
Record
44%
418-527 (945)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.