Spread: UCLA (-6.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold UCLA (67%) · UCLA at 77¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 14

UCLA77¢Illinois23¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UCLA

Consensus Traders

UCLA 67%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.8K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

46.5¢ → 77¢

+66% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralUCLA at 77%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UCLA

6 of 9 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UCLA77%

Illinois23%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UCLA6 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares5,354

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Illinois3 traders

Total Value$893.62

Total Shares2,048

Combined PnL-$46.4

UCLA — 67%Illinois — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on UCLA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrIllinois 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUCLA 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000UCLA 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JU justaluckydude	UCLAavg 46.4¢	$1.8K	$3.2K	+$1.4K	44% 422-532 (954)
RN1ARB<$100	Illinoisavg 54.2¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$177.84	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
└ Illinois leg	Illinoisavg 54.2¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$22.74
└ UCLA leg	UCLAavg 63¢	$592.2	$437.1	-$155.1
PR primm	UCLAavg 44¢	$542.08	$948.64	+$406.56	59% 899-622 (1521)
38 38791873984189CTR	Illinoisavg 51.1¢	$603.74	$624.15	+$26.17	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
SU SunflowaRebuildYearCTR	Illinoisavg 37¢	$297.48	$225.12	-$72.36	11% 55-453 (508)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	UCLAavg 72¢	$281.01	$224.79	-$56.22	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
└ Illinois leg	Illinoisavg 56¢	$137.01	$135.79	-$1.22
└ UCLA leg	UCLAavg 72¢	$144	$89	-$55
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	UCLAavg 63¢	$139.04	$158.9	+$19.86	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Illinoisavg 54.4¢	$169.19	$104.29	-$35.86	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
└ Illinois leg	Illinoisavg 54.4¢	$69.65	$68.48	-$1.17
└ UCLA leg	UCLAavg 69.6¢	$53.6	$35.81	-$34.69
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Illinoisavg 47.7¢	$138.09	$91.85	-$46.24	37% 841-1416 (2257)
└ Illinois leg	Illinoisavg 47.7¢	$116.81	$62.48	-$54.32
└ UCLA leg	UCLAavg 54¢	$21.28	$29.36	+$8.08
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Illinoisavg 53.8¢	$44.57	$44.35	-$0.21	53% 750-672 (1422)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	UCLAavg 44¢	$19.65	$37.29	+$17.64	47% 72-82 (154)
TA takeormake<$100	UCLAavg 45.1¢	$24.36	$31.32	+$6.96	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	UCLAavg 71¢	$4.04	$4.1	+$0.06	55% 1350-1126 (2476)

justaluckydude

UCLA

Invested

$1,761.73

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

RN1ARB<$100

Illinois

Invested

$2,279.47

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$177.84

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

Both legs:

Illinois$1,687.2754.2¢-$22.74

UCLA$592.263¢-$155.1

primm

UCLA

Invested

$542.08

Value

$948.64

PnL

+$406.56

Record

59%

899-622 (1521)

38791873984189CTR

Illinois

Invested

$603.74

Value

$624.15

PnL

+$26.17

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

SunflowaRebuildYearCTR

Illinois

Invested

$297.48

Value

$225.12

PnL

-$72.36

Record

11%

55-453 (508)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

UCLA

Invested

$281.01

Value

$224.79

PnL

-$56.22

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

Both legs:

Illinois$137.0156¢-$1.22

UCLA$14472¢-$55

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

UCLA

Invested

$139.04

Value

$158.9

PnL

+$19.86

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

Pan9XARB<$100

Illinois

Invested

$169.19

Value

$104.29

PnL

-$35.86

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

Both legs:

Illinois$69.6554.4¢-$1.17

UCLA$53.669.6¢-$34.69

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Illinois

Invested

$138.09

Value

$91.85

PnL

-$46.24

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

Both legs:

Illinois$116.8147.7¢-$54.32

UCLA$21.2854¢+$8.08

NotJumpCTR<$100

Illinois

Invested

$44.57

Value

$44.35

PnL

-$0.21

Record

53%

750-672 (1422)

AmericaFirst1<$100

UCLA

Invested

$19.65

Value

$37.29

PnL

+$17.64

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

takeormake<$100

UCLA

Invested

$24.36

Value

$31.32

PnL

+$6.96

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

UCLA

Invested

$4.04

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$0.06

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

Research grade

NeutralUCLA at 77%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

UCLA

6 of 9 top traders (67%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on UCLA. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrIllinois 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedUCLA 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000UCLA 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UCLA wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance78.9%

77.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$26.81

Max Loss

-$100.00

126.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.