Spread: UCLA (-16.5)

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Illinois (62%) · Illinois at 73¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14

UCLA28¢Illinois72¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Illinois

Consensus Traders

Illinois 62%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$63.92

Smart Money Entry

59.2¢ → 72.5¢

+22% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralIllinois at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Illinois

8 of 13 top traders (62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UCLA28%

Illinois73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Illinois8 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,511

Combined PnL+$171.48

UCLA5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares3,050

Combined PnL-$107.56

Illinois — 62%UCLA — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

46% of non-arb traders are on Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrIllinois 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUCLA 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000UCLA 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Illinoisavg 58.6¢	$999.52	$1.1K	+$75.58	59% 899-622 (1521)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Illinoisavg 62.6¢	$671.05	$717.42	+$326.65	44% 422-532 (954)
└ Illinois leg	Illinoisavg 62.6¢	$391.69	$387.71	+$84.84
└ UCLA leg	UCLAavg 10.1¢	$87.9	$329.71	+$241.82
BI biying88888	Illinoisavg 49¢	$464.52	$535.62	+$71.1	43% 192-254 (446)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	UCLAavg 43¢	$547.7	$493.73	-$53.97	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	UCLAavg 36.6¢	$1.2K	$343.86	-$231.28	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
└ UCLA leg	UCLAavg 36.6¢	$225.49	$234.08	-$121.7
└ Illinois leg	Illinoisavg 61.1¢	$108.21	$109.78	-$109.58
RN1CTR	UCLAavg 49.7¢	$442.48	$331.32	-$111.15	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
VE VenusianCTR	UCLAavg 35¢	$264.65	$325.14	+$60.49	36% 893-1601 (2494)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Illinoisavg 76.8¢	$252.01	$260.84	+$8.83	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Illinoisavg 52¢	$130	$231.25	+$101.25	37% 497-832 (1329)
65 6512395314597884	Illinoisavg 92¢	$286	$200	-$86	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
CM cm2897CTR	UCLAavg 39¢	$113.88	$110.96	-$2.92	49% 1153-1192 (2345)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	UCLAavg 43.7¢	$214.84	$65.48	-$64.33	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
└ Illinois leg	Illinoisavg 81.4¢	$43.96	$42.93	-$38.41
└ UCLA leg	UCLAavg 43.7¢	$48.12	$22.55	-$25.92
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Illinoisavg 59.4¢	$36.6	$38.84	+$2.24	47% 72-82 (154)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	UCLAavg 43¢	$8.6	$8.6	+$0	53% 750-672 (1422)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Illinoisavg 78¢	$8.39	$7.58	-$0.82	37% 841-1416 (2257)
GH ghorrock<$100	Illinoisavg 65¢	$6.55	$5.85	-$0.71	53% 1572-1421 (2993)

primm

Illinois

Invested

$999.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$75.58

Record

59%

899-622 (1521)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Illinois

Invested

$671.05

Value

$717.42

PnL

+$326.65

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

Both legs:

Illinois$391.6962.6¢+$84.84

UCLA$87.910.1¢+$241.82

biying88888

Illinois

Invested

$464.52

Value

$535.62

PnL

+$71.1

Record

43%

192-254 (446)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

UCLA

Invested

$547.7

Value

$493.73

PnL

-$53.97

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

38791873984189ARB<$100

UCLA

Invested

$1,234.24

Value

$343.86

PnL

-$231.28

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

Both legs:

UCLA$225.4936.6¢-$121.7

Illinois$108.2161.1¢-$109.58

RN1CTR

UCLA

Invested

$442.48

Value

$331.32

PnL

-$111.15

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

VenusianCTR

UCLA

Invested

$264.65

Value

$325.14

PnL

+$60.49

Record

36%

893-1601 (2494)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Illinois

Invested

$252.01

Value

$260.84

PnL

+$8.83

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Illinois

Invested

$130

Value

$231.25

PnL

+$101.25

Record

37%

497-832 (1329)

6512395314597884

Illinois

Invested

$286

Value

$200

PnL

-$86

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

cm2897CTR

UCLA

Invested

$113.88

Value

$110.96

PnL

-$2.92

Record

49%

1153-1192 (2345)

Pan9XARB<$100

UCLA

Invested

$214.84

Value

$65.48

PnL

-$64.33

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

Both legs:

Illinois$43.9681.4¢-$38.41

UCLA$48.1243.7¢-$25.92

AmericaFirst1<$100

Illinois

Invested

$36.6

Value

$38.84

PnL

+$2.24

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

NotJumpCTR<$100

UCLA

Invested

$8.6

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

750-672 (1422)

topdogbigboi<$100

Illinois

Invested

$8.39

Value

$7.58

PnL

-$0.82

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

ghorrock<$100

Illinois

Invested

$6.55

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.71

Record

53%

1572-1421 (2993)

Research grade

NeutralIllinois at 73%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Illinois

8 of 13 top traders (62%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 64%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

46% of non-arb traders are on Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrIllinois 63% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUCLA 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000UCLA 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Illinois wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.