Idaho State vs. Montana

5 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold Montana (23%) · Montana at 87¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Idaho State14¢Montana86¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Montana

Consensus Traders

Montana 23%

Total Value

$4.8K

Combined PnL

$18.16

Smart Money Entry

78.8¢ → 86.5¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralMontana at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Montana

5 of 22 top traders (23%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Idaho State14%

Montana87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Montana5 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares4,860

Combined PnL+$462.43

Idaho State17 traders

Total Value$530.52

Total Shares4,387

Combined PnL-$444.27

Montana — 23%Idaho State — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Montana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMontana 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrIdaho State 82% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Idaho State 80% · 20

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TH thatsabing0	Montanaavg 78.5¢	$3.7K	$4.2K	+$460.99	62% 259-156 (415)
0X 0xfFFF6537CTR	Idaho Stateavg 20¢	$200.55	$100.5	-$100.05	42% 93-130 (223)
38 38791873984189CTR	Idaho Stateavg 22¢	$220	$100	-$120	48% 3837-4187 (8024)
NO NotJumpCTR	Idaho Stateavg 50¢	$105	$99.75	-$5.25	50% 1055-1041 (2096)
PA Pan9XCTR	Idaho Stateavg 20.3¢	$152.32	$75.16	-$77.16	50% 2084-2112 (4196)
US User7429<$100	Montanaavg 97¢	$67.9	$67.62	-$0.28	43% 420-559 (979)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Idaho Stateavg 21¢	$88.83	$42.3	-$46.53	37% 473-802 (1275)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Montanaavg 85¢	$25.02	$25.91	+$0.88	55% 781-647 (1428)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Idaho Stateavg 21.3¢	$35.03	$22.17	-$12.86	39% 1498-2355 (3853)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Idaho Stateavg 23¢	$46	$20	-$26	48% 354-381 (735)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Idaho Stateavg 25¢	$37.5	$15	-$22.5	53% 7402-6535 (13937)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Idaho Stateavg 12¢	$15.84	$13.2	-$2.64	58% 3890-2826 (6716)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Idaho Stateavg 18¢	$18	$10	-$8	49% 363-380 (743)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Idaho Stateavg 23.8¢	$23.54	$9.9	-$13.64	45% 935-1121 (2056)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Idaho Stateavg 12¢	$7.08	$5.9	-$1.18	46% 844-988 (1832)
dips.CTR<$100	Idaho Stateavg 12¢	$6.4	$5.33	-$1.07	48% 1255-1336 (2591)
RN1CTR<$100	Idaho Stateavg 6¢	$4.86	$4.9	+$0.04	54% 5924-4982 (10906)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Idaho Stateavg 26¢	$12.51	$4.81	-$7.7	35% 133-244 (377)
HY hydra1248<$100	Montanaavg 71¢	$3.2	$4.06	+$0.86	75% 220-74 (294)
SU suntori<$100	Montanaavg 86¢	$1.9	$1.88	-$0.02	46% 3088-3615 (6703)
CA CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100	Idaho Stateavg 8¢	$0.87	$1.09	+$0.22	49% 605-633 (1238)
PT PT-S7CTR<$100	Idaho Stateavg 9¢	$0.45	$0.5	+$0.05	31% 120-265 (385)

thatsabing0

Montana

Invested

$3,731.65

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$460.99

Record

62%

259-156 (415)

0xfFFF6537CTR

Idaho State

Invested

$200.55

Value

$100.5

PnL

-$100.05

Record

42%

93-130 (223)

38791873984189CTR

Idaho State

Invested

$220

Value

$100

PnL

-$120

Record

48%

3837-4187 (8024)

NotJumpCTR

Idaho State

Invested

$105

Value

$99.75

PnL

-$5.25

Record

50%

1055-1041 (2096)

Pan9XCTR

Idaho State

Invested

$152.32

Value

$75.16

PnL

-$77.16

Record

50%

2084-2112 (4196)

User7429<$100

Montana

Invested

$67.9

Value

$67.62

PnL

-$0.28

Record

43%

420-559 (979)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Idaho State

Invested

$88.83

Value

$42.3

PnL

-$46.53

Record

37%

473-802 (1275)

averagejoetraders<$100

Montana

Invested

$25.02

Value

$25.91

PnL

+$0.88

Record

55%

781-647 (1428)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Idaho State

Invested

$35.03

Value

$22.17

PnL

-$12.86

Record

39%

1498-2355 (3853)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Idaho State

Invested

$46

Value

$20

PnL

-$26

Record

48%

354-381 (735)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Idaho State

Invested

$37.5

Value

$15

PnL

-$22.5

Record

53%

7402-6535 (13937)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Idaho State

Invested

$15.84

Value

$13.2

PnL

-$2.64

Record

58%

3890-2826 (6716)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Idaho State

Invested

$18

Value

$10

PnL

-$8

Record

49%

363-380 (743)

lryyyCTR<$100

Idaho State

Invested

$23.54

Value

$9.9

PnL

-$13.64

Record

45%

935-1121 (2056)

smithagentCTR<$100

Idaho State

Invested

$7.08

Value

$5.9

PnL

-$1.18

Record

46%

844-988 (1832)

dips.CTR<$100

Idaho State

Invested

$6.4

Value

$5.33

PnL

-$1.07

Record

48%

1255-1336 (2591)

RN1CTR<$100

Idaho State

Invested

$4.86

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.04

Record

54%

5924-4982 (10906)

OddstormCTR<$100

Idaho State

Invested

$12.51

Value

$4.81

PnL

-$7.7

Record

35%

133-244 (377)

hydra1248<$100

Montana

Invested

$3.2

Value

$4.06

PnL

+$0.86

Record

75%

220-74 (294)

suntori<$100

Montana

Invested

$1.9

Value

$1.88

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

3088-3615 (6703)

CandleHammerDrumsCTR<$100

Idaho State

Invested

$0.87

Value

$1.09

PnL

+$0.22

Record

49%

605-633 (1238)

PT-S7CTR<$100

Idaho State

Invested

$0.45

Value

$0.5

PnL

+$0.05

Record

31%

120-265 (385)

Research grade

NeutralMontana at 87%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Montana

5 of 22 top traders (23%)17 hold an outcome priced under 50%17 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

20% of non-arb traders are on Montana. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpMontana 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrIdaho State 82% · 11

Diverging

Top 1000Idaho State 80% · 20

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Montana wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.