Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (74%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Houston vs. Colorado: O/U 69.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 27¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 14

Over74¢Under26¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$648.29

Smart Money Entry

43.4¢ → 26.5¢

-39% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over74%

Under27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares6,515

Combined PnL-$709.24

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,984

Combined PnL+$60.95

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 54.9¢	$3.4K	$3.8K	+$377.17	56% 5169-4141 (9310)
└ Over leg	Overavg 54.9¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$87.93
└ Under leg	Underavg 34¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$289.24
PR primmCTR	Underavg 43.5¢	$2.3K	$1.6K	-$712.77	59% 899-623 (1522)
CM cm2897	Overavg 70.9¢	$827.01	$816.28	-$10.73	49% 1153-1192 (2345)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 56.7¢	$478.51	$517.59	+$39.09	50% 3738-3712 (7450)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56.7¢	$340	$342	+$2
└ Under leg	Underavg 33.9¢	$138.51	$175.59	+$37.09
38 38791873984189	Overavg 58.1¢	$694.5	$413.49	+$57.31	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
PA PacersThreeandahalfCTR	Underavg 40¢	$308.4	$331.53	+$23.13	61% 1027-652 (1679)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 52¢	$134.37	$77.47	-$56.9	38% 509-839 (1348)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Underavg 43.3¢	$81.88	$55.78	-$26.1	47% 72-82 (154)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 55.7¢	$102.08	$55.63	+$14.37	49% 1449-1486 (2935)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 31.8¢	$446.38	$10.78	+$63.4	55% 1469-1221 (2690)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 57¢	$2.85	$2.85	+$0	46% 470-556 (1026)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 57¢	$1.01	$1.01	+$0	57% 3492-2606 (6098)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,381.93

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$377.17

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

Both legs:

Over$2,292.654.9¢+$87.93

Under$1,089.3334¢+$289.24

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$2,294.67

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$712.77

Record

59%

899-623 (1522)

cm2897

Over

Invested

$827.01

Value

$816.28

PnL

-$10.73

Record

49%

1153-1192 (2345)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$478.51

Value

$517.59

PnL

+$39.09

Record

50%

3738-3712 (7450)

Both legs:

Over$34056.7¢+$2

Under$138.5133.9¢+$37.09

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$694.5

Value

$413.49

PnL

+$57.31

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

PacersThreeandahalfCTR

Under

Invested

$308.4

Value

$331.53

PnL

+$23.13

Record

61%

1027-652 (1679)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$134.37

Value

$77.47

PnL

-$56.9

Record

38%

509-839 (1348)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$81.88

Value

$55.78

PnL

-$26.1

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$102.08

Value

$55.63

PnL

+$14.37

Record

49%

1449-1486 (2935)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$446.38

Value

$10.78

PnL

+$63.4

Record

55%

1469-1221 (2690)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$2.85

Value

$2.85

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

470-556 (1026)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$1.01

Value

$1.01

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3492-2606 (6098)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 27%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Over 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.5%

26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$250.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

350.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.