Houston vs. Colorado: O/U 63.5
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (63%) · Over at 88¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
8
Over 63%
$4.9K
-$903.78
70.1¢ → 88¢
+26% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Overavg 67.8¢ | $2.8K | $3.2K | +$445.01 | 56% 5169-4141 (9310) |
65 6512395314597884 | Overavg 79.6¢ | $679.91 | $675.03 | -$4.88 | 50% 3738-3712 (7450) |
PR primmCTR | Underavg 29.2¢ | $1.7K | $656.17 | $-1.1K | 59% 899-623 (1522) |
PA Pan9X | Overavg 70.7¢ | $184.91 | $153.34 | +$22.44 | 49% 1449-1486 (2935) |
NO NotJump<$100 | Overavg 80¢ | $80 | $79 | -$1 | 53% 760-685 (1445) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 73¢ | $609.13 | $19.6 | -$263.01 | 48% 3052-3353 (6405) |
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100 | Underavg 21.6¢ | $37.66 | $19.18 | -$18.48 | 47% 72-82 (154) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Overavg 79¢ | $5.05 | $6.26 | +$1.21 | 55% 1469-1221 (2690) |
RN1Invested
$2,799.91
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$445.01
Record
56%
5169-4141 (9310)
Invested
$679.91
Value
$675.03
PnL
-$4.88
Record
50%
3738-3712 (7450)
Invested
$1,741.24
Value
$656.17
PnL
$-1.1K
Record
59%
899-623 (1522)
Invested
$184.91
Value
$153.34
PnL
+$22.44
Record
49%
1449-1486 (2935)
Invested
$80
Value
$79
PnL
-$1
Record
53%
760-685 (1445)
Invested
$609.13
Value
$19.6
PnL
-$263.01
Record
48%
3052-3353 (6405)
Invested
$37.66
Value
$19.18
PnL
-$18.48
Record
47%
72-82 (154)
Invested
$5.05
Value
$6.26
PnL
+$1.21
Record
55%
1469-1221 (2690)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.