Houston vs. Colorado: O/U 57.5

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 87¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Over87¢Under13¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$250.32

Smart Money Entry

44.9¢ → 86.5¢

+92% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over87%

Under14%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares4,396

Combined PnL+$68.42

Under6 traders

Total Value$763.51

Total Shares1,804

Combined PnL-$318.74

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Overavg 45.8¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$15.29	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
PR primmCTR	Underavg 61¢	$406.26	$419.58	+$13.32	59% 899-622 (1521)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 49.1¢	$354.22	$371.68	+$17.47	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 39¢	$259.74	$246.42	-$13.32	45% 224-276 (500)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 50¢	$220.68	$227.3	+$6.62	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 73¢	$146	$126	-$20	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 27¢	$57.28	$95	+$37.72	44% 422-532 (954)
CM cm2897CTR	Underavg 57¢	$337.44	$79.92	-$257.52	49% 1153-1192 (2345)
BI biying88888CTR	Underavg 57¢	$127.68	$71.68	-$56	43% 192-254 (446)
PA Pan9X<$100	Overavg 48.1¢	$65.91	$70.56	+$4.65	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 51¢	$49.64	$51.1	+$1.46	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Underavg 63¢	$15.23	$15.23	+$0	47% 72-82 (154)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,019.75

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$15.29

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$406.26

Value

$419.58

PnL

+$13.32

Record

59%

899-622 (1521)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$354.22

Value

$371.68

PnL

+$17.47

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$259.74

Value

$246.42

PnL

-$13.32

Record

45%

224-276 (500)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$220.68

Value

$227.3

PnL

+$6.62

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$146

Value

$126

PnL

-$20

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$57.28

Value

$95

PnL

+$37.72

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

cm2897CTR

Under

Invested

$337.44

Value

$79.92

PnL

-$257.52

Record

49%

1153-1192 (2345)

biying88888CTR

Under

Invested

$127.68

Value

$71.68

PnL

-$56

Record

43%

192-254 (446)

Pan9X<$100

Over

Invested

$65.91

Value

$70.56

PnL

+$4.65

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$49.64

Value

$51.1

PnL

+$1.46

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.23

Value

$15.23

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.0%

86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$13.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.