Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (97%). 4 of 14 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Houston vs. Colorado: O/U 49.5

4 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 2.9¢ · $25K held · ended Nov 14

Over97¢Under3¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 29%

Total Value

$24.8K

Combined PnL

-$734.13

Smart Money Entry

53.9¢ → 2.9¢

-95% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 14 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Over 97%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over97%

Under3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$9.5K

Total Shares25,511

Combined PnL$-4.2K

Over10 traders

Total Value$15.3K

Total Shares25,797

Combined PnL+$3.5K

Under — 29%Over — 71%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Underavg 53.8¢	$10.4K	$7.9K	$-2.5K	59% 899-622 (1521)
RN1	Overavg 45.5¢	$5.7K	$6.0K	+$257.38	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 47.7¢	$3.9K	$6.0K	+$2.1K	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 45.8¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$668.52	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
VI vibing123CTR	Underavg 54.4¢	$3.1K	$1.4K	$-1.7K	62% 1127-678 (1805)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 45.8¢	$583.24	$732.15	+$398.66	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 44.8¢	$544.18	$522.41	-$21.77	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 45.9¢	$202.88	$327.42	+$124.53	37% 841-1416 (2257)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR	Underavg 55¢	$298.89	$222.93	-$75.96	47% 72-82 (154)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 44.6¢	$168.81	$165.65	-$0.45	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
NO NotJump<$100	Overavg 45.5¢	$49.3	$45.22	-$1.92	53% 750-672 (1422)
dips.<$100	Overavg 44¢	$29.48	$29.82	+$0.34	47% 877-973 (1850)
tradecraft<$100	Overavg 57¢	$28.5	$24.5	-$4	28% 298-748 (1046)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$6.82	$8.29	+$1.46	48% 269-290 (559)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$10,359.72

Value

$7.9K

PnL

$-2.5K

Record

59%

899-622 (1521)

RN1

Over

Invested

$5,748.95

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$257.38

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$3,902.08

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$2.1K

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$1,481.64

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$668.52

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

vibing123CTR

Under

Invested

$3,086.7

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

62%

1127-678 (1805)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$583.24

Value

$732.15

PnL

+$398.66

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$544.18

Value

$522.41

PnL

-$21.77

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$202.88

Value

$327.42

PnL

+$124.53

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

AmericaFirst1CTR

Under

Invested

$298.89

Value

$222.93

PnL

-$75.96

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$168.81

Value

$165.65

PnL

-$0.45

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

NotJump<$100

Over

Invested

$49.3

Value

$45.22

PnL

-$1.92

Record

53%

750-672 (1422)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$29.48

Value

$29.82

PnL

+$0.34

Record

47%

877-973 (1850)

tradecraft<$100

Over

Invested

$28.5

Value

$24.5

PnL

-$4

Record

28%

298-748 (1046)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.82

Value

$8.29

PnL

+$1.46

Record

48%

269-290 (559)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 3%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 14 top traders (29%)Underdog side (market favors Over 97%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance4.1%

2.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2315.63

Max Loss

-$100.00

2415.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.