Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (98%). 4 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Houston vs. Colorado: O/U 47.5

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (36%) · Under at 1.9¢ · $14K held · ended Nov 14

Over98¢Under2¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$14.2K

Combined PnL

$-3.0K

Smart Money Entry

49.1¢ → 1.9¢

-96% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Over 98%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over98%

Under2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$5.8K

Total Shares18,024

Combined PnL$-3.1K

Over7 traders

Total Value$8.2K

Total Shares15,725

Combined PnL+$84.28

Under — 36%Over — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Underavg 49.1¢	$7.1K	$5.0K	$-2.1K	59% 899-622 (1521)
RN1	Overavg 51.1¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$36.12	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 49.6¢	$1.9K	$1.9K	+$52.51	51% 2368-2313 (4681)
65 6512395314597884	Overavg 50.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$15.4	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 52.5¢	$931.2	$697.37	-$58.99	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
VI vibing123CTR	Underavg 48.7¢	$1.4K	$585.83	-$805.21	62% 1127-678 (1805)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 51.6¢	$197.43	$231.48	+$34.05	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846	Overavg 49¢	$122.5	$200	+$77.5	37% 497-832 (1329)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR	Underavg 49.8¢	$253.13	$175.21	-$77.92	47% 72-82 (154)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Overavg 52.3¢	$202.89	$166.2	-$3.55	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.3¢	$127.08	$117.79	-$9.97
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.3¢	$46.34	$48.41	+$6.42
JU justaluckydude<$100	Overavg 48¢	$46.08	$76.8	+$30.72	44% 422-532 (954)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Overavg 52.1¢	$72.44	$70.27	-$2.16	53% 750-672 (1422)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.1¢	$38.52	$39.58	+$1.07
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.4¢	$33.92	$30.69	-$3.23
NA NatoAlfistaCTR	Underavg 53¢	$161.12	$62.32	-$98.8	41% 146-213 (359)

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$7,053.07

Value

$5.0K

PnL

$-2.1K

Record

59%

899-622 (1521)

RN1

Over

Invested

$3,659.17

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$36.12

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$1,880.37

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$52.51

Record

51%

2368-2313 (4681)

6512395314597884

Over

Invested

$1,424.94

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$15.4

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$931.2

Value

$697.37

PnL

-$58.99

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

vibing123CTR

Under

Invested

$1,391.04

Value

$585.83

PnL

-$805.21

Record

62%

1127-678 (1805)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over

Invested

$197.43

Value

$231.48

PnL

+$34.05

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Over

Invested

$122.5

Value

$200

PnL

+$77.5

Record

37%

497-832 (1329)

AmericaFirst1CTR

Under

Invested

$253.13

Value

$175.21

PnL

-$77.92

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

Pan9XARB<$100

Over

Invested

$202.89

Value

$166.2

PnL

-$3.55

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

Both legs:

Over$127.0852.3¢-$9.97

Under$46.3449.3¢+$6.42

justaluckydude<$100

Over

Invested

$46.08

Value

$76.8

PnL

+$30.72

Record

44%

422-532 (954)

NotJumpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$72.44

Value

$70.27

PnL

-$2.16

Record

53%

750-672 (1422)

Both legs:

Over$38.5252.1¢+$1.07

Under$33.9251.4¢-$3.23

NatoAlfistaCTR

Under

Invested

$161.12

Value

$62.32

PnL

-$98.8

Record

41%

146-213 (359)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 11 top traders (36%)Underdog side (market favors Over 98%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance3.1%

1.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3132.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

3233.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.