Spread: Colorado (-2.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Colorado (67%) · Colorado at 74¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Colorado74¢Houston26¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colorado

Consensus Traders

Colorado 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

$607.19

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 73.5¢

+37% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralColorado at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colorado

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Colorado74%

Houston27%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colorado6 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,403

Combined PnL+$615.9

Houston3 traders

Total Value$44.21

Total Shares107

Combined PnL-$8.71

Colorado — 67%Houston — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Colorado. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrColorado 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedColorado 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colorado 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Coloradoavg 52.5¢	$1.7K	$2.2K	+$586.15	59% 899-623 (1522)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Houstonavg 47.5¢	$1.8K	$1.4K	-$419.4	50% 3738-3712 (7450)
└ Houston leg	Houstonavg 47.5¢	$1.4K	$964.5	-$460.5
└ Colorado leg	Coloradoavg 61¢	$366	$407.1	+$41.1
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Coloradoavg 56.4¢	$154.59	$165.01	+$10.42	51% 2426-2359 (4785)
38 38791873984189	Coloradoavg 65¢	$114.4	$119.42	+$5.02	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
PA Pan9X	Coloradoavg 59.8¢	$97.11	$110.12	+$13.02	49% 1449-1486 (2935)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Houstonavg 47.3¢	$36.01	$30.31	-$5.7	55% 1469-1221 (2690)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Houstonavg 43.2¢	$10.83	$10.11	-$0.72	37% 909-1532 (2441)
RN1<$100	Coloradoavg 60.2¢	$9.2	$9.2	+$0	56% 5169-4141 (9310)
TA takeormake<$100	Coloradoavg 43.9¢	$3.51	$4.82	+$1.3	57% 3492-2606 (6098)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Houstonavg 39.8¢	$6.08	$3.79	-$2.29	47% 72-82 (154)

primm

Colorado

Invested

$1,748.45

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$586.15

Record

59%

899-623 (1522)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Houston

Invested

$1,791

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$419.4

Record

50%

3738-3712 (7450)

Both legs:

Houston$1,42547.5¢-$460.5

Colorado$36661¢+$41.1

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Colorado

Invested

$154.59

Value

$165.01

PnL

+$10.42

Record

51%

2426-2359 (4785)

38791873984189

Colorado

Invested

$114.4

Value

$119.42

PnL

+$5.02

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

Pan9X

Colorado

Invested

$97.11

Value

$110.12

PnL

+$13.02

Record

49%

1449-1486 (2935)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Houston

Invested

$36.01

Value

$30.31

PnL

-$5.7

Record

55%

1469-1221 (2690)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Houston

Invested

$10.83

Value

$10.11

PnL

-$0.72

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

RN1<$100

Colorado

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.2

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

takeormake<$100

Colorado

Invested

$3.51

Value

$4.82

PnL

+$1.3

Record

57%

3492-2606 (6098)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Houston

Invested

$6.08

Value

$3.79

PnL

-$2.29

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

Research grade

NeutralColorado at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Colorado

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Colorado. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrColorado 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedColorado 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Colorado 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colorado wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.