Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Houston, while the market favors Colorado (87%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Houston (-2.5)

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Houston (54%) · Houston at 14¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Houston14¢Colorado86¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Houston

Consensus Traders

Houston 54%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

$579.58

Smart Money Entry

59.6¢ → 13.5¢

-77% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidHouston at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Houston

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Colorado 87%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Houston14%

Colorado87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colorado6 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares2,861

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Houston7 traders

Total Value$583.31

Total Shares2,160

Combined PnL-$731.28

Colorado — 46%Houston — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrColorado 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedHouston 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Houston 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Coloradoavg 34¢	$557.26	$1.4K	+$835.89	59% 899-623 (1522)
MA MadridTime	Coloradoavg 29¢	$194.53	$489.68	+$295.15	37% 946-1592 (2538)
RN1CTR	Houstonavg 58.5¢	$660.25	$304.73	-$355.52	56% 5169-4141 (9310)
LI Limousin	Coloradoavg 29¢	$65.91	$165.91	+$100	36% 902-1601 (2503)
38 38791873984189CTR	Houstonavg 66¢	$330	$113.67	-$191.43	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
NA NatoAlfista	Coloradoavg 45¢	$56.16	$106.08	+$49.92	42% 157-221 (378)
TA takeormake	Coloradoavg 73¢	$102.93	$102.93	+$0	57% 3492-2606 (6098)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Houstonavg 57.2¢	$203.69	$96.07	-$107.62	50% 3738-3712 (7450)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Coloradoavg 34¢	$19.93	$49.83	+$29.9	47% 72-82 (154)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Houstonavg 66¢	$66	$27	-$39	49% 1449-1486 (2935)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Houstonavg 42¢	$37.1	$23.85	-$13.25	55% 1469-1221 (2690)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Houstonavg 62.4¢	$35.29	$15.27	-$20.02	37% 909-1532 (2441)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Houstonavg 71¢	$7.15	$2.72	-$4.43	52% 1608-1475 (3083)

primm

Colorado

Invested

$557.26

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$835.89

Record

59%

899-623 (1522)

MadridTime

Colorado

Invested

$194.53

Value

$489.68

PnL

+$295.15

Record

37%

946-1592 (2538)

RN1CTR

Houston

Invested

$660.25

Value

$304.73

PnL

-$355.52

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

Limousin

Colorado

Invested

$65.91

Value

$165.91

PnL

+$100

Record

36%

902-1601 (2503)

38791873984189CTR

Houston

Invested

$330

Value

$113.67

PnL

-$191.43

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

NatoAlfista

Colorado

Invested

$56.16

Value

$106.08

PnL

+$49.92

Record

42%

157-221 (378)

takeormake

Colorado

Invested

$102.93

Value

$102.93

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

3492-2606 (6098)

6512395314597884CTR

Houston

Invested

$203.69

Value

$96.07

PnL

-$107.62

Record

50%

3738-3712 (7450)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Colorado

Invested

$19.93

Value

$49.83

PnL

+$29.9

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Houston

Invested

$66

Value

$27

PnL

-$39

Record

49%

1449-1486 (2935)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Houston

Invested

$37.1

Value

$23.85

PnL

-$13.25

Record

55%

1469-1221 (2690)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Houston

Invested

$35.29

Value

$15.27

PnL

-$20.02

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Houston

Invested

$7.15

Value

$2.72

PnL

-$4.43

Record

52%

1608-1475 (3083)

Research grade

AvoidHouston at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Houston

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Colorado 87%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrColorado 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedHouston 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Houston 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Houston wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance15.1%

13.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$561.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

661.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.