Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Houston, while the market favors Colorado (85%). 6 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Houston (-1.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Houston (60%) · Houston at 16¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Houston16¢Colorado84¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Houston

Consensus Traders

Houston 60%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

-$771.94

Smart Money Entry

82.4¢ → 15.5¢

-81% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidHouston at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Houston

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Colorado 85%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Houston16%

Colorado85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Houston6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,644

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Colorado4 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,833

Combined PnL+$827.02

Houston — 60%Colorado — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrColorado 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedHouston 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Houston 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Houstonavg 84.4¢	$2.5K	$1.4K	$-1.1K	56% 5169-4141 (9310)
PR primm	Coloradoavg 30¢	$488.1	$1.3K	+$821.64	59% 899-623 (1522)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Houstonavg 83.9¢	$724.78	$414.71	-$310.07	50% 3738-3712 (7450)
38 38791873984189CTR	Houstonavg 70¢	$352.08	$238.18	-$108.9	48% 3052-3353 (6405)
PA Pan9XCTR	Houstonavg 80.4¢	$207.21	$123.64	-$83.57	49% 1449-1486 (2935)
TA takeormake	Coloradoavg 72¢	$102.96	$74.36	-$28.6	57% 3492-2606 (6098)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Coloradoavg 30¢	$17.42	$49.36	+$31.94	47% 72-82 (154)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Houstonavg 69¢	$27.13	$18.87	-$8.26	37% 909-1532 (2441)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Coloradoavg 11¢	$0.55	$2.6	+$2.05	55% 1469-1221 (2690)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Houstonavg 48¢	$2.7	$0.84	-$1.86	24% 53-164 (217)

RN1CTR

Houston

Invested

$2,522.86

Value

$1.4K

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

56%

5169-4141 (9310)

primm

Colorado

Invested

$488.1

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$821.64

Record

59%

899-623 (1522)

6512395314597884CTR

Houston

Invested

$724.78

Value

$414.71

PnL

-$310.07

Record

50%

3738-3712 (7450)

38791873984189CTR

Houston

Invested

$352.08

Value

$238.18

PnL

-$108.9

Record

48%

3052-3353 (6405)

Pan9XCTR

Houston

Invested

$207.21

Value

$123.64

PnL

-$83.57

Record

49%

1449-1486 (2935)

takeormake

Colorado

Invested

$102.96

Value

$74.36

PnL

-$28.6

Record

57%

3492-2606 (6098)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Colorado

Invested

$17.42

Value

$49.36

PnL

+$31.94

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Houston

Invested

$27.13

Value

$18.87

PnL

-$8.26

Record

37%

909-1532 (2441)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Colorado

Invested

$0.55

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$2.05

Record

55%

1469-1221 (2690)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Houston

Invested

$2.7

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$1.86

Record

24%

53-164 (217)

Research grade

AvoidHouston at 16%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Houston

6 of 10 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Colorado 85%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Houston. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrColorado 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedHouston 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Houston 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Houston wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance17.2%

15.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$481.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

581.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.