Spread: Houston (-13.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Colorado (40%) · Colorado at 86¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14

Houston14¢Colorado86¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Colorado

Consensus Traders

Colorado 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.2K

Combined PnL

$2.0K

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 85.5¢

+81% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralColorado at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Colorado

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Houston14%

Colorado86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Colorado4 traders

Total Value$4.2K

Total Shares4,994

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Houston6 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares4,044

Combined PnL+$125.14

Colorado — 40%Houston — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Coloradoavg 47.3¢	$2.2K	$4.0K	+$1.8K	59% 899-622 (1521)
RN1CTR	Houstonavg 52.1¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$135.99	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Houstonavg 52.7¢	$562.3	$556.24	-$6.06	50% 3689-3644 (7333)
└ Houston leg	Houstonavg 52.7¢	$354.63	$386.61	+$31.99
└ Colorado leg	Coloradoavg 52¢	$207.67	$169.63	-$38.04
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Houstonavg 58¢	$290	$292.5	+$2.5	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
AM AmericaFirst1	Coloradoavg 47.5¢	$81.2	$146.19	+$64.99	47% 72-82 (154)
PA Pan9XCTR	Houstonavg 49.1¢	$111.54	$95.21	-$3.1	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
38 38791873984189CTR	Houstonavg 52.2¢	$350.77	$60.25	-$12.81	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
NO NotJump<$100	Coloradoavg 51¢	$35.48	$35.84	+$0.35	53% 750-672 (1422)
NA NatoAlfista<$100	Coloradoavg 52¢	$27.82	$25.41	-$2.41	41% 146-213 (359)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Houstonavg 50¢	$17	$19.55	+$2.55	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Houstonavg 50¢	$2.31	$2.33	+$0.02	37% 841-1416 (2257)

primm

Colorado

Invested

$2,230.94

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$1.8K

Record

59%

899-622 (1521)

RN1CTR

Houston

Invested

$1,773.31

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$135.99

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Houston

Invested

$562.3

Value

$556.24

PnL

-$6.06

Record

50%

3689-3644 (7333)

Both legs:

Houston$354.6352.7¢+$31.99

Colorado$207.6752¢-$38.04

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Houston

Invested

$290

Value

$292.5

PnL

+$2.5

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

AmericaFirst1

Colorado

Invested

$81.2

Value

$146.19

PnL

+$64.99

Record

47%

72-82 (154)

Pan9XCTR

Houston

Invested

$111.54

Value

$95.21

PnL

-$3.1

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

38791873984189CTR

Houston

Invested

$350.77

Value

$60.25

PnL

-$12.81

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

NotJump<$100

Colorado

Invested

$35.48

Value

$35.84

PnL

+$0.35

Record

53%

750-672 (1422)

NatoAlfista<$100

Colorado

Invested

$27.82

Value

$25.41

PnL

-$2.41

Record

41%

146-213 (359)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Houston

Invested

$17

Value

$19.55

PnL

+$2.55

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Houston

Invested

$2.31

Value

$2.33

PnL

+$0.02

Record

37%

841-1416 (2257)

Research grade

NeutralColorado at 86%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Colorado

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Colorado wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.