Hawai'i vs. UTEP

10 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Hawai'i (53%) · Hawai'i at 73¢ · $26K held · ends Nov 8

Hawai'i73¢UTEP27¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hawai'i

Consensus Traders

Hawai'i 53%

Total Value

$26.4K

Combined PnL

$142.96

Smart Money Entry

73.4¢ → 72.5¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralHawai'i at 73%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hawai'i

10 of 19 top traders (53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hawai'i73%

UTEP28%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hawai'i10 traders

Total Value$24.7K

Total Shares33,196

Combined PnL+$56.79

UTEP9 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares5,902

Combined PnL+$86.17

Hawai'i — 53%UTEP — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Hawai'i. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawai'i 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrHawai'i 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedHawai'i 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawai'i 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FE ferrariChampions2026	Hawai'iavg 74¢	$8.0K	$7.9K	-$141.68	42% 8192-11384 (19576)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Hawai'iavg 73¢	$6.8K	$6.9K	+$46.28	50% 2774-2749 (5523)
HI hi774c	Hawai'iavg 73¢	$4.0K	$4.1K	+$82.26	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
HO HomeRunHazard	Hawai'iavg 73¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	+$75.67	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
SE sentrio	Hawai'iavg 73.8¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$22.97	50% 26504-26107 (52611)
38 38791873984189CTR	UTEPavg 26¢	$856.23	$901.76	+$45.53	48% 63191-68207 (131398)
FL Flaznorp	Hawai'iavg 73¢	$459.72	$457.01	-$2.71	51% 27272-25818 (53090)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Hawai'iavg 74¢	$444	$435	-$9	51% 2062-2000 (4062)
VE VenusianCTR	UTEPavg 26.2¢	$243.19	$255.21	+$12.02	49% 1844-1936 (3780)
PainfulvoidCTR	UTEPavg 26¢	$162.14	$171.5	+$9.35	54% 1878-1618 (3496)
GC GC-PCTR	UTEPavg 26¢	$130	$137.5	+$7.5	64% 10184-5783 (15967)
NM NM-PCTR	UTEPavg 26¢	$130	$137.5	+$7.5	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	UTEPavg 26¢	$59.07	$62.48	+$3.41	49% 1800-1902 (3702)
PA Pan9X<$100	Hawai'iavg 74¢	$62.15	$47.96	-$0.82	54% 10485-8797 (19282)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	UTEPavg 26.7¢	$29.23	$30.15	+$0.91	48% 1776-1912 (3688)
PL pltrkr111<$100	Hawai'iavg 73¢	$25.74	$25.56	-$0.18	55% 790-658 (1448)
VeryLucky888	Hawai'iavg 73.5¢	$4.4K	$2.79	+$29.94	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	UTEPavg 27¢	$1.92	$1.96	+$0.04	50% 21821-22062 (43883)
RL RLWGCTR<$100	UTEPavg 27¢	$1.66	$1.57	-$0.09	50% 8436-8484 (16920)

ferrariChampions2026

Hawai'i

Invested

$8,013.06

Value

$7.9K

PnL

-$141.68

Record

42%

8192-11384 (19576)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Hawai'i

Invested

$6,756.45

Value

$6.9K

PnL

+$46.28

Record

50%

2774-2749 (5523)

hi774c

Hawai'i

Invested

$4,003.2

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$82.26

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

HomeRunHazard

Hawai'i

Invested

$3,660.1

Value

$3.6K

PnL

+$75.67

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

sentrio

Hawai'i

Invested

$1,262.46

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$22.97

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

38791873984189CTR

UTEP

Invested

$856.23

Value

$901.76

PnL

+$45.53

Record

48%

63191-68207 (131398)

Flaznorp

Hawai'i

Invested

$459.72

Value

$457.01

PnL

-$2.71

Record

51%

27272-25818 (53090)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Hawai'i

Invested

$444

Value

$435

PnL

-$9

Record

51%

2062-2000 (4062)

VenusianCTR

UTEP

Invested

$243.19

Value

$255.21

PnL

+$12.02

Record

49%

1844-1936 (3780)

PainfulvoidCTR

UTEP

Invested

$162.14

Value

$171.5

PnL

+$9.35

Record

54%

1878-1618 (3496)

GC-PCTR

UTEP

Invested

$130

Value

$137.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

64%

10184-5783 (15967)

NM-PCTR

UTEP

Invested

$130

Value

$137.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

UTEP

Invested

$59.07

Value

$62.48

PnL

+$3.41

Record

49%

1800-1902 (3702)

Pan9X<$100

Hawai'i

Invested

$62.15

Value

$47.96

PnL

-$0.82

Record

54%

10485-8797 (19282)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

UTEP

Invested

$29.23

Value

$30.15

PnL

+$0.91

Record

48%

1776-1912 (3688)

pltrkr111<$100

Hawai'i

Invested

$25.74

Value

$25.56

PnL

-$0.18

Record

55%

790-658 (1448)

VeryLucky888

Hawai'i

Invested

$4,412.85

Value

$2.79

PnL

+$29.94

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

UTEP

Invested

$1.92

Value

$1.96

PnL

+$0.04

Record

50%

21821-22062 (43883)

RLWGCTR<$100

UTEP

Invested

$1.66

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$0.09

Record

50%

8436-8484 (16920)

Research grade

NeutralHawai'i at 73%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Hawai'i

10 of 19 top traders (53%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on Hawai'i. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleHawai'i 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrHawai'i 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedHawai'i 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Hawai'i 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hawai'i wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.5%

72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$34.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

134.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.