Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (78%). 9 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Georgia Tech vs. Clemson: O/U 49.5

9 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (82%) · Over at 22¢ · $15K held · ended Nov 14

Over22¢Under78¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 82%

Total Value

$15.3K

Combined PnL

$-3.7K

Smart Money Entry

44.5¢ → 22¢

-51% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Under 78%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over22%

Under78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$12.7K

Total Shares37,236

Combined PnL$-3.7K

Under2 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,984

Combined PnL+$28.22

Over — 82%Under — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadoxCTR	Overavg 45¢	$9.9K	$6.0K	$-3.8K	37% 977-1669 (2646)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Overavg 45¢	$5.5K	$5.5K	+$0	37% 985-1642 (2627)
PR primm	Underavg 63.8¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$27.98	59% 931-653 (1584)
RN1CTR	Overavg 39.8¢	$366.22	$349.66	-$16.56	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 35.9¢	$1.3K	$322.27	+$161.36	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Overavg 37.7¢	$252.55	$254.32	+$1.77	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 44¢	$176	$180	+$4	51% 568-535 (1103)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Underavg 64.3¢	$82.03	$82.27	+$0.24	47% 99-111 (210)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Overavg 35.3¢	$95.15	$59.16	+$1.07	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 32.4¢	$14.54	$20.17	+$5.64	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$4.32	$6.07	+$1.75	37% 1039-1757 (2796)

LightParadoxCTR

Over

Invested

$9,893.03

Value

$6.0K

PnL

$-3.8K

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

MadridTimeCTR

Over

Invested

$5,478.17

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

primm

Under

Invested

$2,459.14

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$27.98

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$366.22

Value

$349.66

PnL

-$16.56

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$1,298.95

Value

$322.27

PnL

+$161.36

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

6512395314597884CTR

Over

Invested

$252.55

Value

$254.32

PnL

+$1.77

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$176

Value

$180

PnL

+$4

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Under

Invested

$82.03

Value

$82.27

PnL

+$0.24

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$95.15

Value

$59.16

PnL

+$1.07

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.54

Value

$20.17

PnL

+$5.64

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.32

Value

$6.07

PnL

+$1.75

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 22%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 11 top traders (82%)Underdog side (market favors Under 78%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Over 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance23.9%

22.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$318.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

418.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.