Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (52%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Georgia Tech vs. Clemson: O/U 45.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 49¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 14

Over49¢Under51¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.4K

Combined PnL

-$54.01

Smart Money Entry

57.8¢ → 48.5¢

-16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over49%

Under52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares10,240

Combined PnL-$206.44

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares10,508

Combined PnL+$152.43

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 58¢	$4.1K	$4.0K	-$143.1	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
IM imjustkenisghey	Underavg 42¢	$3.1K	$3.2K	+$110.52	48% 34-37 (71)
PL pltrkr111CTR	Overavg 58¢	$999.99	$965.51	-$34.48	4% 23-537 (560)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 42¢	$866.51	$887.14	+$20.63	37% 972-1637 (2609)
DA DanielsDixonCTR	Overavg 56¢	$559.99	$534.99	-$25	21% 16-62 (78)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Underavg 44¢	$368	$388.91	+$20.91	25% 343-1024 (1367)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR	Overavg 57.3¢	$163.94	$161.59	-$2.35	54% 286-244 (530)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 56¢	$190.22	$120.48	+$2.08	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
└ Over leg	Overavg 56¢	$84.37	$84.37	+$1.26
└ Under leg	Underavg 43¢	$35.29	$36.11	+$0.82
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 44¢	$44.88	$44.88	+$0	37% 964-1664 (2628)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 58¢	$43.5	$42	-$1.5	48% 2091-2257 (4348)
PA Pan9X<$100	Underavg 43¢	$15.91	$16.28	+$0.37	50% 1593-1618 (3211)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$4,150

Value

$4.0K

PnL

-$143.1

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

imjustkenisghey

Under

Invested

$3,138.76

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$110.52

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

pltrkr111CTR

Over

Invested

$999.99

Value

$965.51

PnL

-$34.48

Record

23-537 (560)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$866.51

Value

$887.14

PnL

+$20.63

Record

37%

972-1637 (2609)

DanielsDixonCTR

Over

Invested

$559.99

Value

$534.99

PnL

-$25

Record

21%

16-62 (78)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Under

Invested

$368

Value

$388.91

PnL

+$20.91

Record

25%

343-1024 (1367)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR

Over

Invested

$163.94

Value

$161.59

PnL

-$2.35

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$190.22

Value

$120.48

PnL

+$2.08

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

Both legs:

Invested

$44.88

Value

$44.88

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

964-1664 (2628)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$43.5

Value

$42

PnL

-$1.5

Record

48%

2091-2257 (4348)

Pan9X<$100

Under

Invested

$15.91

Value

$16.28

PnL

+$0.37

Record

50%

1593-1618 (3211)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Over 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.7%

48.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$97.04

Max Loss

-$100.00

197.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.