Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Georgia Tech vs. Clemson: O/U 39.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 45¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 14

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.9K

Combined PnL

-$458.34

Smart Money Entry

38.1¢ → 44.5¢

+17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares8,122

Combined PnL-$469.55

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares3,799

Combined PnL+$11.21

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 63¢	$3.4K	$3.0K	-$371.17	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
└ Over leg	Overavg 63¢	$2.5K	$2.1K	-$372.34
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.4¢	$877.68	$878.85	+$1.17
PR primmCTR	Underavg 38.8¢	$2.8K	$2.4K	-$460.9	59% 931-653 (1584)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100	Overavg 60.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$107.77	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
└ Over leg	Overavg 60.4¢	$940.71	$825.58	-$115.13
└ Under leg	Underavg 45.8¢	$271.14	$278.5	+$7.36
BI biying88888	Overavg 54¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$9.38	44% 203-260 (463)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 63.8¢	$1.2K	$801.86	-$163.37	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
└ Over leg	Overavg 63.8¢	$747.13	$626.09	-$165.26
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$173.88	$175.77	+$1.89
CM cm2897	Overavg 55¢	$779.35	$758.1	-$21.25	49% 1168-1203 (2371)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Overavg 55.7¢	$329.8	$320.54	-$9.27	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.7¢	$235.6	$224.19	-$11.42
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$94.2	$96.35	+$2.15
TO topdogbigboi	Overavg 57.3¢	$201.9	$257.25	+$55.35	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 26¢	$131.08	$138.64	+$7.56	37% 977-1669 (2646)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Underavg 39.2¢	$96.71	$80.15	-$16.56	47% 99-111 (210)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Overavg 55¢	$48.75	$47.42	-$1.33	46% 497-591 (1088)
PA Pan9X	Overavg 60.1¢	$121.37	$34.46	-$12.17	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$31.5	$31.85	+$0.35	52% 833-779 (1612)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$3,357.4

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$371.17

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

Both legs:

Over$2,479.7263¢-$372.34

Under$877.6846.4¢+$1.17

primmCTR

Under

Invested

$2,833.81

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$460.9

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,211.85

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$107.77

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

Both legs:

Over$940.7160.4¢-$115.13

Under$271.1445.8¢+$7.36

biying88888

Over

Invested

$1,013.04

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$9.38

Record

44%

203-260 (463)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,240.23

Value

$801.86

PnL

-$163.37

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

Both legs:

Over$747.1363.8¢-$165.26

Under$173.8846¢+$1.89

cm2897

Over

Invested

$779.35

Value

$758.1

PnL

-$21.25

Record

49%

1168-1203 (2371)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$329.8

Value

$320.54

PnL

-$9.27

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Both legs:

Over$235.655.7¢-$11.42

Under$94.246¢+$2.15

topdogbigboi

Over

Invested

$201.9

Value

$257.25

PnL

+$55.35

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$131.08

Value

$138.64

PnL

+$7.56

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$96.71

Value

$80.15

PnL

-$16.56

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Over

Invested

$48.75

Value

$47.42

PnL

-$1.33

Record

46%

497-591 (1088)

Pan9X

Over

Invested

$121.37

Value

$34.46

PnL

-$12.17

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.5

Value

$31.85

PnL

+$0.35

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.