Spread: Clemson (-4.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia Tech (22%) · Georgia Tech at 68¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Clemson32¢Georgia Tech68¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Georgia Tech

Consensus Traders

Georgia Tech 22%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

$705.11

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 68¢

+29% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia Tech at 68%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia Tech

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Clemson32%

Georgia Tech68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia Tech2 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares4,491

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Clemson7 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,409

Combined PnL-$356.22

Georgia Tech — 22%Clemson — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Georgia Techavg 52.9¢	$2.3K	$3.3K	+$1.0K	59% 931-653 (1584)
RN1ARB<$100	Georgia Techavg 75.7¢	$1.3K	$1.0K	-$300.18	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
└ Georgia Tech leg	Georgia Techavg 75.7¢	$660.51	$697.81	+$37.3
└ Clemson leg	Clemsonavg 42¢	$644.28	$306.8	-$337.48
GA gagarin59CTR	Clemsonavg 25¢	$288.08	$397.09	+$109.01	42% 64-89 (153)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Clemsonavg 60¢	$300.89	$245.92	-$54.96	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Clemsonavg 45.6¢	$204.21	$172.54	-$31.67	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
38 38791873984189CTR	Clemsonavg 48.8¢	$554.52	$169.56	-$312.58	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
AM AmericaFirst1	Georgia Techavg 53.1¢	$78.26	$112.79	+$34.53	47% 99-111 (210)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Clemsonavg 39¢	$86.07	$86.07	-$0	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Clemsonavg 45.3¢	$47.52	$47.15	-$0.37	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
PA Pan9XCTR	Clemsonavg 51.1¢	$115.36	$26.95	-$65.66	50% 1593-1619 (3212)

primm

Georgia Tech

Invested

$2,295.86

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.0K

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

RN1ARB<$100

Georgia Tech

Invested

$1,304.79

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$300.18

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

Both legs:

Georgia Tech$660.5175.7¢+$37.3

Clemson$644.2842¢-$337.48

gagarin59CTR

Clemson

Invested

$288.08

Value

$397.09

PnL

+$109.01

Record

42%

64-89 (153)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Clemson

Invested

$300.89

Value

$245.92

PnL

-$54.96

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

6512395314597884CTR

Clemson

Invested

$204.21

Value

$172.54

PnL

-$31.67

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

38791873984189CTR

Clemson

Invested

$554.52

Value

$169.56

PnL

-$312.58

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

AmericaFirst1

Georgia Tech

Invested

$78.26

Value

$112.79

PnL

+$34.53

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$86.07

Value

$86.07

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$47.52

Value

$47.15

PnL

-$0.37

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

Pan9XCTR

Clemson

Invested

$115.36

Value

$26.95

PnL

-$65.66

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia Tech at 68%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia Tech

2 of 9 top traders (22%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.1%

68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$42.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

142.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.