Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Clemson, while the market favors Georgia Tech (64%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Clemson (-3.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Clemson (75%) · Clemson at 37¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Clemson37¢Georgia Tech63¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Clemson

Consensus Traders

Clemson 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$-1.0K

Smart Money Entry

73.1¢ → 36.5¢

-50% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralClemson at 37%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clemson

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia Tech 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Clemson37%

Georgia Tech64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia Tech2 traders

Total Value$295.6

Total Shares413

Combined PnL+$121.9

Clemson6 traders

Total Value$881.74

Total Shares2,442

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Georgia Tech — 25%Clemson — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Georgia Techavg 72.7¢	$484.8	$352.9	-$131.9	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
└ Georgia Tech leg	Georgia Techavg 72.7¢	$285.14	$266.56	-$18.58
└ Clemson leg	Clemsonavg 74¢	$199.66	$86.34	-$113.32
PR primm	Georgia Techavg 42¢	$168	$286	+$118	59% 931-653 (1584)
38 38791873984189CTR	Clemsonavg 77¢	$1.0K	$285.93	-$685.9	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Clemsonavg 75.5¢	$994.74	$220.91	-$394.29	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Clemsonavg 63¢	$252	$210	-$42	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Clemsonavg 64¢	$134.83	$146.41	+$11.59	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Clemsonavg 72.3¢	$66.2	$10.73	-$36.33	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Georgia Techavg 42.4¢	$5.7	$9.6	+$3.9	47% 99-111 (210)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Clemsonavg 77¢	$7.76	$7.76	+$0	53% 1809-1607 (3416)

RN1ARB<$100

Georgia Tech

Invested

$484.8

Value

$352.9

PnL

-$131.9

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

Both legs:

Georgia Tech$285.1472.7¢-$18.58

Clemson$199.6674¢-$113.32

primm

Georgia Tech

Invested

$168

Value

$286

PnL

+$118

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

38791873984189CTR

Clemson

Invested

$1,034.92

Value

$285.93

PnL

-$685.9

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Clemson

Invested

$994.74

Value

$220.91

PnL

-$394.29

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

6512395314597884CTR

Clemson

Invested

$252

Value

$210

PnL

-$42

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

topdogbigboiCTR

Clemson

Invested

$134.83

Value

$146.41

PnL

+$11.59

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$66.2

Value

$10.73

PnL

-$36.33

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Georgia Tech

Invested

$5.7

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$3.9

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$7.76

Value

$7.76

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Research grade

NeutralClemson at 37%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Clemson

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia Tech 64%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clemson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.