Spread: Clemson (-2.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia Tech (40%) · Georgia Tech at 53¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 14

Clemson48¢Georgia Tech52¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Georgia Tech

Consensus Traders

Georgia Tech 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$15.8K

Combined PnL

$779.05

Smart Money Entry

56.8¢ → 52.5¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia Tech at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia Tech

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Clemson48%

Georgia Tech53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia Tech4 traders

Total Value$9.6K

Total Shares14,531

Combined PnL+$1.3K

Clemson6 traders

Total Value$5.3K

Total Shares13,576

Combined PnL-$531.95

Georgia Tech — 40%Clemson — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Georgia Techavg 56.7¢	$7.0K	$8.3K	+$1.3K	59% 931-653 (1584)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Clemsonavg 42.9¢	$4.9K	$4.4K	-$497.09	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
RN1ARB<$100	Clemsonavg 43¢	$918.94	$913.55	-$5.39	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
└ Clemson leg	Clemsonavg 43¢	$661.17	$653.52	-$7.65
└ Georgia Tech leg	Georgia Techavg 57¢	$257.77	$260.03	+$2.26
VI vibing123	Georgia Techavg 57.5¢	$783.59	$729.11	-$54.48	62% 1138-702 (1840)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Clemsonavg 42.8¢	$347.32	$340.67	-$6.66	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
38 38791873984189CTR	Clemsonavg 47.9¢	$355.2	$322.77	-$32.43	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Georgia Techavg 55.2¢	$293.36	$300.02	+$6.65	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
AM AmericaFirst1	Georgia Techavg 56.7¢	$165.95	$196.02	+$30.07	47% 99-111 (210)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Clemsonavg 42.5¢	$105.51	$108.09	+$2.58	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Clemsonavg 44¢	$99.22	$98.09	-$1.13	43% 182-242 (424)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Clemsonavg 42.2¢	$87.17	$89.95	+$2.77	50% 1593-1619 (3212)

primm

Georgia Tech

Invested

$7,004.1

Value

$8.3K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Clemson

Invested

$4,863.79

Value

$4.4K

PnL

-$497.09

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

RN1ARB<$100

Clemson

Invested

$918.94

Value

$913.55

PnL

-$5.39

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

Both legs:

Clemson$661.1743¢-$7.65

Georgia Tech$257.7757¢+$2.26

vibing123

Georgia Tech

Invested

$783.59

Value

$729.11

PnL

-$54.48

Record

62%

1138-702 (1840)

6512395314597884CTR

Clemson

Invested

$347.32

Value

$340.67

PnL

-$6.66

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

38791873984189CTR

Clemson

Invested

$355.2

Value

$322.77

PnL

-$32.43

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Georgia Tech

Invested

$293.36

Value

$300.02

PnL

+$6.65

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

AmericaFirst1

Georgia Tech

Invested

$165.95

Value

$196.02

PnL

+$30.07

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

topdogbigboiCTR

Clemson

Invested

$105.51

Value

$108.09

PnL

+$2.58

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$99.22

Value

$98.09

PnL

-$1.13

Record

43%

182-242 (424)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$87.17

Value

$89.95

PnL

+$2.77

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia Tech at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Georgia Tech

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.