Spread: Clemson (-1.5)

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia Tech (40%) · Georgia Tech at 51¢ · $17K held · ended Nov 14

Clemson49¢Georgia Tech51¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Georgia Tech

Consensus Traders

Georgia Tech 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.7K

Combined PnL

$351.42

Smart Money Entry

54.6¢ → 51¢

-7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia Tech at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia Tech

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Clemson49%

Georgia Tech51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia Tech4 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares15,883

Combined PnL+$319.68

Clemson6 traders

Total Value$7.2K

Total Shares15,733

Combined PnL+$31.74

Georgia Tech — 40%Clemson — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Georgia Techavg 54.5¢	$6.2K	$6.5K	+$342.87	59% 931-653 (1584)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Clemsonavg 44.9¢	$6.3K	$6.3K	+$82.42	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
VI vibing123	Georgia Techavg 55.2¢	$2.1K	$2.1K	-$25.61	62% 1138-702 (1840)
38 38791873984189CTR	Clemsonavg 49.3¢	$672.9	$621.07	-$51.83	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
RN1ARB<$100	Clemsonavg 45¢	$557.14	$566.98	+$9.83	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
└ Clemson leg	Clemsonavg 45¢	$345.14	$348.98	+$3.83
└ Georgia Tech leg	Georgia Techavg 53¢	$212	$218	+$6
AM AmericaFirst1	Georgia Techavg 54.9¢	$207.54	$205.91	-$1.63	47% 99-111 (210)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Georgia Techavg 53.2¢	$169.54	$173.58	+$4.04	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Clemsonavg 46¢	$78.89	$78.03	-$0.86	43% 182-242 (424)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Clemsonavg 43.7¢	$59.91	$53.93	+$0.66	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Clemsonavg 44.2¢	$39.8	$40.95	+$1.15	52% 833-779 (1612)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Clemsonavg 44¢	$17.46	$17.66	+$0.2	50% 3807-3775 (7582)

primm

Georgia Tech

Invested

$6,165.15

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$342.87

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Clemson

Invested

$6,262.14

Value

$6.3K

PnL

+$82.42

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

vibing123

Georgia Tech

Invested

$2,134.13

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$25.61

Record

62%

1138-702 (1840)

38791873984189CTR

Clemson

Invested

$672.9

Value

$621.07

PnL

-$51.83

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

RN1ARB<$100

Clemson

Invested

$557.14

Value

$566.98

PnL

+$9.83

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

Both legs:

Clemson$345.1445¢+$3.83

Georgia Tech$21253¢+$6

AmericaFirst1

Georgia Tech

Invested

$207.54

Value

$205.91

PnL

-$1.63

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Georgia Tech

Invested

$169.54

Value

$173.58

PnL

+$4.04

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$78.89

Value

$78.03

PnL

-$0.86

Record

43%

182-242 (424)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$59.91

Value

$53.93

PnL

+$0.66

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$39.8

Value

$40.95

PnL

+$1.15

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$17.46

Value

$17.66

PnL

+$0.2

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia Tech at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Georgia Tech

4 of 10 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.