Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Clemson, while the market favors Georgia Tech (55%). 8 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Georgia Tech (-7.5)

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Clemson (80%) · Clemson at 46¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 14

Georgia Tech55¢Clemson45¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Clemson

Consensus Traders

Clemson 80%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

-$287.63

Smart Money Entry

63.4¢ → 45.5¢

-28% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralClemson at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clemson

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia Tech 55%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Georgia Tech55%

Clemson46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Clemson8 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,275

Combined PnL-$309.66

Georgia Tech2 traders

Total Value$321.39

Total Shares557

Combined PnL+$22.03

Clemson — 80%Georgia Tech — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Clemson. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrClemson 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedClemson 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Clemson 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Clemsonavg 59.4¢	$694.44	$566.91	-$127.52	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
BI biying88888	Georgia Techavg 53.3¢	$243.36	$263.55	+$20.19	44% 203-260 (463)
RN1CTR	Clemsonavg 70.6¢	$192.74	$196.56	+$3.82	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
PA Pan9XCTR	Clemsonavg 58.9¢	$179.73	$163.48	-$16.25	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
38 38791873984189CTR	Clemsonavg 71.6¢	$214.7	$115.2	-$99.5	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
CM cm2897<$100	Georgia Techavg 55.9¢	$56	$57.85	+$1.85	49% 1168-1203 (2371)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Clemsonavg 72¢	$56.4	$30.08	-$26.32	48% 280-301 (581)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Clemsonavg 73.4¢	$47.46	$24.83	-$22.63	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Clemsonavg 73¢	$36.5	$19.2	-$17.3	53% 7148-6248 (13396)
65 6512395314597884CTR<$100	Clemsonavg 55.3¢	$19.44	$15.48	-$3.96	50% 3807-3775 (7582)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Clemson

Invested

$694.44

Value

$566.91

PnL

-$127.52

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

biying88888

Georgia Tech

Invested

$243.36

Value

$263.55

PnL

+$20.19

Record

44%

203-260 (463)

RN1CTR

Clemson

Invested

$192.74

Value

$196.56

PnL

+$3.82

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

Pan9XCTR

Clemson

Invested

$179.73

Value

$163.48

PnL

-$16.25

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

38791873984189CTR

Clemson

Invested

$214.7

Value

$115.2

PnL

-$99.5

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

cm2897<$100

Georgia Tech

Invested

$56

Value

$57.85

PnL

+$1.85

Record

49%

1168-1203 (2371)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$56.4

Value

$30.08

PnL

-$26.32

Record

48%

280-301 (581)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$47.46

Value

$24.83

PnL

-$22.63

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$36.5

Value

$19.2

PnL

-$17.3

Record

53%

7148-6248 (13396)

6512395314597884CTR<$100

Clemson

Invested

$19.44

Value

$15.48

PnL

-$3.96

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Research grade

NeutralClemson at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Clemson

8 of 10 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia Tech 55%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Clemson. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrClemson 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedClemson 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Clemson 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clemson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.