Spread: Georgia Tech (-5.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Clemson (78%) · Clemson at 71¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Georgia Tech30¢Clemson70¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Clemson

Consensus Traders

Clemson 78%

Total Value

$5.9K

Combined PnL

-$343.1

Smart Money Entry

62.6¢ → 70.5¢

+13% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralClemson at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clemson

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Georgia Tech30%

Clemson71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia Tech2 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares6,239

Combined PnL-$150.75

Clemson7 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares6,295

Combined PnL-$192.35

Georgia Tech — 22%Clemson — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Georgia Techavg 37.4¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$146.81	59% 931-653 (1584)
RN1	Clemsonavg 61.3¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$96.51	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
38 38791873984189	Clemsonavg 63.5¢	$1.0K	$940.05	-$98.82	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
65 6512395314597884	Clemsonavg 63.4¢	$640.26	$641.31	+$1.05	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Clemsonavg 63¢	$323.13	$322.96	-$0.17	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
PA Pan9X	Clemsonavg 63.5¢	$207.04	$207.64	+$0.6	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
TO topdogbigboi	Clemsonavg 63¢	$126	$127	+$1	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
NO NotJump<$100	Clemsonavg 63¢	$63	$63.5	+$0.5	52% 833-779 (1612)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Georgia Techavg 37.3¢	$64.76	$60.81	-$3.95	47% 99-111 (210)

primmCTR

Georgia Tech

Invested

$2,269.71

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$146.81

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

RN1

Clemson

Invested

$1,540.75

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$96.51

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

38791873984189

Clemson

Invested

$1,038.87

Value

$940.05

PnL

-$98.82

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

6512395314597884

Clemson

Invested

$640.26

Value

$641.31

PnL

+$1.05

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Clemson

Invested

$323.13

Value

$322.96

PnL

-$0.17

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

Pan9X

Clemson

Invested

$207.04

Value

$207.64

PnL

+$0.6

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

topdogbigboi

Clemson

Invested

$126

Value

$127

PnL

+$1

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

NotJump<$100

Clemson

Invested

$63

Value

$63.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Georgia Tech

Invested

$64.76

Value

$60.81

PnL

-$3.95

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

Research grade

NeutralClemson at 71%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clemson

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clemson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.