Spread: Georgia Tech (-4.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Clemson (78%) · Clemson at 69¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Georgia Tech31¢Clemson69¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Clemson

Consensus Traders

Clemson 78%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$91.72

Smart Money Entry

60.6¢ → 69¢

+14% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralClemson at 69%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Clemson

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Georgia Tech31%

Clemson69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia Tech2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares3,097

Combined PnL-$90.62

Clemson7 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,126

Combined PnL-$1.1

Georgia Tech — 22%Clemson — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Georgia Techavg 39.4¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$88.87	59% 931-653 (1584)
RN1	Clemsonavg 61¢	$956.46	$979.74	+$23.28	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
65 6512395314597884	Clemsonavg 58.5¢	$473.46	$436.76	-$36.71	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
38 38791873984189	Clemsonavg 62.2¢	$395.05	$396.88	+$1.82	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Clemsonavg 58¢	$23.24	$37.07	+$13.82	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
PA Pan9X<$100	Clemsonavg 62¢	$28.91	$25.18	-$3.74	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Georgia Techavg 40.1¢	$19.61	$17.86	-$1.75	47% 99-111 (210)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Clemsonavg 61¢	$8.7	$8.91	+$0.21	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
NO NotJump<$100	Clemsonavg 61¢	$8.1	$8.3	+$0.2	52% 833-779 (1612)

primmCTR

Georgia Tech

Invested

$1,201.39

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$88.87

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

RN1

Clemson

Invested

$956.46

Value

$979.74

PnL

+$23.28

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

6512395314597884

Clemson

Invested

$473.46

Value

$436.76

PnL

-$36.71

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

38791873984189

Clemson

Invested

$395.05

Value

$396.88

PnL

+$1.82

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

topdogbigboi<$100

Clemson

Invested

$23.24

Value

$37.07

PnL

+$13.82

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

Pan9X<$100

Clemson

Invested

$28.91

Value

$25.18

PnL

-$3.74

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Georgia Tech

Invested

$19.61

Value

$17.86

PnL

-$1.75

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Clemson

Invested

$8.7

Value

$8.91

PnL

+$0.21

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

NotJump<$100

Clemson

Invested

$8.1

Value

$8.3

PnL

+$0.2

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

Research grade

NeutralClemson at 69%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Clemson

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Clemson wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.