Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Georgia Tech, while the market favors Clemson (61%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: Georgia Tech (-2.5)
2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia Tech (22%) · Georgia Tech at 40¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Georgia Tech
9
Georgia Tech 22%
$10.4K
$923.42
46.9¢ → 39.5¢
-16% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralGeorgia Tech at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Clemson 61%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PR primmCTR | Georgia Techavg 46.9¢ | $4.8K | $5.8K | +$1.1K | 59% 931-653 (1584) |
 RN1 | Clemsonavg 55.5¢ | $1.8K | $1.6K | -$162.84 | 55% 5380-4339 (9719) |
38 38791873984189 | Clemsonavg 53.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.1K | -$44.92 | 48% 3231-3545 (6776) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Clemsonavg 51¢ | $969.42 | $566.75 | +$39.72 | 55% 1630-1336 (2966) |
65 6512395314597884 | Clemsonavg 51.5¢ | $538.29 | $538.78 | +$0.49 | 50% 3807-3775 (7582) |
TO topdogbigboi | Clemsonavg 51.1¢ | $387.72 | $383.13 | -$4.59 | 37% 1039-1757 (2796) |
PA Pan9X | Clemsonavg 50.8¢ | $253.6 | $205.6 | +$5 | 50% 1593-1619 (3212) |
AM AmericaFirst1CTR | Georgia Techavg 45.9¢ | $95.86 | $117.89 | +$22.03 | 47% 99-111 (210) |
NO NotJump<$100 | Clemsonavg 50.9¢ | $22.32 | $22.58 | +$0.26 | 52% 833-779 (1612) |
Invested
$4,753.56
Value
$5.8K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
59%
931-653 (1584)
RN1Invested
$1,811.38
Value
$1.6K
PnL
-$162.84
Record
55%
5380-4339 (9719)
Invested
$1,404.81
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$44.92
Record
48%
3231-3545 (6776)
Invested
$969.42
Value
$566.75
PnL
+$39.72
Record
55%
1630-1336 (2966)
Invested
$538.29
Value
$538.78
PnL
+$0.49
Record
50%
3807-3775 (7582)
Invested
$387.72
Value
$383.13
PnL
-$4.59
Record
37%
1039-1757 (2796)
Invested
$253.6
Value
$205.6
PnL
+$5
Record
50%
1593-1619 (3212)
Invested
$95.86
Value
$117.89
PnL
+$22.03
Record
47%
99-111 (210)
Invested
$22.32
Value
$22.58
PnL
+$0.26
Record
52%
833-779 (1612)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
primm
CTRGeorgia Tech — $5.8K
RN1
Clemson — $1.6K
38791873984189
Clemson — $1.1K
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
Clemson — $566.75
6512395314597884
Clemson — $538.78
topdogbigboi
Clemson — $383.13
Pan9X
Clemson — $205.6
AmericaFirst1
CTRGeorgia Tech — $117.89
NotJump
Clemson — $22.58