Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Georgia Tech, while the market favors Clemson (54%). 5 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Georgia Tech (-1.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia Tech (50%) · Georgia Tech at 46¢ · $11K held · ended Nov 14

Georgia Tech46¢Clemson54¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Georgia Tech

Consensus Traders

Georgia Tech 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$11.4K

Combined PnL

$103.19

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 46¢

-9% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia Tech at 46%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia Tech

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Clemson 54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Georgia Tech46%

Clemson54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia Tech5 traders

Total Value$5.1K

Total Shares10,365

Combined PnL-$178.38

Clemson5 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares5,672

Combined PnL+$281.57

Georgia Tech — 50%Clemson — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Georgia Techavg 50.9¢	$4.2K	$4.1K	-$119.92	59% 931-653 (1584)
RN1ARB<$100	Clemsonavg 49.8¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$20.35	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
└ Clemson leg	Clemsonavg 49.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$7.23
└ Georgia Tech leg	Georgia Techavg 49.3¢	$900.21	$913.34	+$13.13
CUTJALENHURTS	Clemsonavg 49¢	$2.0K	$2.3K	+$305.75	52% 2645-2472 (5117)
CM cm2897CTR	Georgia Techavg 50¢	$639.54	$575.59	-$63.95	49% 1168-1203 (2371)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Clemsonavg 50.3¢	$474.17	$456.04	-$18.13	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
└ Clemson leg	Clemsonavg 50.3¢	$303.94	$259.7	-$44.24
└ Georgia Tech leg	Georgia Techavg 49.4¢	$170.23	$196.34	+$26.11
BI biying88888	Clemsonavg 52.6¢	$378.4	$342	-$36.4	44% 203-260 (463)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Georgia Techavg 47.6¢	$280.61	$285.67	+$5.06	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
NA NatoAlfista	Clemsonavg 50.7¢	$215.57	$214.89	-$0.68	43% 182-242 (424)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Georgia Techavg 49¢	$327.44	$174.96	+$5	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
└ Georgia Tech leg	Georgia Techavg 49¢	$91.59	$93.46	+$4.06
└ Clemson leg	Clemsonavg 50¢	$81.5	$81.5	+$0.94
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Clemsonavg 49.3¢	$165.57	$117.57	+$2.96	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
└ Clemson leg	Clemsonavg 49.3¢	$69.88	$70.1	+$1.42
└ Georgia Tech leg	Georgia Techavg 49.7¢	$46.74	$47.47	+$1.54
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Clemsonavg 42.9¢	$100.76	$112.63	+$11.87	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
TO topdogbigboi	Clemsonavg 49¢	$105.6	$106.64	+$1.04	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Georgia Techavg 49¢	$45.11	$44.65	-$0.46	52% 833-779 (1612)
AM AmericaFirst1CTR<$100	Georgia Techavg 48.7¢	$33.61	$34.5	+$0.89	47% 99-111 (210)

primmCTR

Georgia Tech

Invested

$4,246.39

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$119.92

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

RN1ARB<$100

Clemson

Invested

$2,491.63

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$20.35

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

Both legs:

Clemson$1,591.4249.8¢+$7.23

Georgia Tech$900.2149.3¢+$13.13

CUTJALENHURTS

Clemson

Invested

$1,997.55

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$305.75

Record

52%

2645-2472 (5117)

cm2897CTR

Georgia Tech

Invested

$639.54

Value

$575.59

PnL

-$63.95

Record

49%

1168-1203 (2371)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Clemson

Invested

$474.17

Value

$456.04

PnL

-$18.13

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Both legs:

Clemson$303.9450.3¢-$44.24

Georgia Tech$170.2349.4¢+$26.11

biying88888

Clemson

Invested

$378.4

Value

$342

PnL

-$36.4

Record

44%

203-260 (463)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Georgia Tech

Invested

$280.61

Value

$285.67

PnL

+$5.06

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

NatoAlfista

Clemson

Invested

$215.57

Value

$214.89

PnL

-$0.68

Record

43%

182-242 (424)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Georgia Tech

Invested

$327.44

Value

$174.96

PnL

+$5

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

Both legs:

Georgia Tech$91.5949¢+$4.06

Clemson$81.550¢+$0.94

Pan9XARB<$100

Clemson

Invested

$165.57

Value

$117.57

PnL

+$2.96

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

Both legs:

Clemson$69.8849.3¢+$1.42

Georgia Tech$46.7449.7¢+$1.54

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Clemson

Invested

$100.76

Value

$112.63

PnL

+$11.87

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

topdogbigboi

Clemson

Invested

$105.6

Value

$106.64

PnL

+$1.04

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Georgia Tech

Invested

$45.11

Value

$44.65

PnL

-$0.46

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

AmericaFirst1CTR<$100

Georgia Tech

Invested

$33.61

Value

$34.5

PnL

+$0.89

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia Tech at 46%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia Tech

5 of 10 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Clemson 54%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia Tech wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.