Georgia Southern vs. Georgia State: O/U 57.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 54¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 14

Over47¢Under53¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$9.2K

Combined PnL

$247.05

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 53.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over47%

Under54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$8.3K

Total Shares15,277

Combined PnL+$256.19

Over3 traders

Total Value$881.06

Total Shares1,889

Combined PnL-$9.14

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 51.7¢	$3.2K	$3.3K	+$102.39	57% 3567-2709 (6276)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 51.7¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$55.36	53% 1179-1029 (2208)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Underavg 52.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$23.24	49% 615-642 (1257)
PL pltrkr111	Underavg 51¢	$1,000	$1.0K	+$49.02	4% 22-532 (554)
HI hi774c	Underavg 52¢	$657.27	$676.23	+$18.96	22% 158-576 (734)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 47.8¢	$868.2	$555.56	-$5.64	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
NM NM-PCTR	Overavg 47¢	$164.5	$162.75	-$1.75	60% 3726-2536 (6262)
GC GC-PCTR	Overavg 47¢	$164.5	$162.75	-$1.75	36% 317-553 (870)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 51¢	$98.87	$103.72	+$4.85	48% 852-928 (1780)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 52¢	$82.16	$84.53	+$2.37	55% 250-204 (454)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$3,209.76

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$102.39

Record

57%

3567-2709 (6276)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$1,555.2

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$55.36

Record

53%

1179-1029 (2208)

Multicoloured-Serf

Under

Invested

$1,418.47

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$23.24

Record

49%

615-642 (1257)

pltrkr111

Under

Invested

$1,000

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$49.02

Record

22-532 (554)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$657.27

Value

$676.23

PnL

+$18.96

Record

22%

158-576 (734)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$868.2

Value

$555.56

PnL

-$5.64

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

NM-PCTR

Over

Invested

$164.5

Value

$162.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

60%

3726-2536 (6262)

GC-PCTR

Over

Invested

$164.5

Value

$162.75

PnL

-$1.75

Record

36%

317-553 (870)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$98.87

Value

$103.72

PnL

+$4.85

Record

48%

852-928 (1780)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$82.16

Value

$84.53

PnL

+$2.37

Record

55%

250-204 (454)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

37h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

70% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.