Spread: Georgia Southern (-10.5)

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Georgia State (75%) · Georgia State at 57¢ · $19K held · ended Nov 14

Georgia Southern43¢Georgia State57¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Georgia State

Consensus Traders

Georgia State 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$19.3K

Combined PnL

-$421.99

Smart Money Entry

51.1¢ → 57¢

+12% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia State at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Georgia State

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Georgia Southern43%

Georgia State57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Georgia Southern3 traders

Total Value$7.8K

Total Shares16,660

Combined PnL-$383.91

Georgia State9 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares20,503

Combined PnL-$38.07

Georgia Southern — 25%Georgia State — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primmCTR	Georgia Southernavg 47¢	$4.9K	$4.6K	-$258.32	59% 948-662 (1610)
RN1	Georgia Stateavg 51.6¢	$4.5K	$4.1K	-$357.12	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Georgia Stateavg 50.5¢	$3.4K	$3.2K	-$136.15	50% 2576-2535 (5111)
ST stackingsatsCTR	Georgia Southernavg 52.8¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$110.83	9% 19-189 (208)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Georgia Stateavg 47¢	$889.52	$1.1K	+$189.26	51% 3880-3665 (7545)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Georgia Stateavg 50.8¢	$994.46	$943.65	+$99.34	50% 3828-3802 (7630)
└ Georgia State leg	Georgia Stateavg 50.8¢	$574.25	$711.88	+$149.05
└ Georgia Southern leg	Georgia Southernavg 44.9¢	$281.47	$231.77	-$49.71
38 38791873984189	Georgia Stateavg 52.5¢	$786.8	$733.39	+$66.12	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
JU justaluckydude	Georgia Stateavg 56.8¢	$757	$669.41	+$42.65	48% 543-600 (1143)
CM cm2897	Georgia Stateavg 50¢	$278	$403.1	+$125.1	49% 1179-1209 (2388)
PA Pan9X	Georgia Stateavg 50.8¢	$199.47	$219.63	+$25.3	50% 1636-1654 (3290)
NA NatoAlfistaCTR<$100	Georgia Southernavg 46¢	$75.44	$60.68	-$14.76	43% 190-253 (443)
NO NotJump<$100	Georgia Stateavg 47.3¢	$47.3	$48.5	+$1.2	52% 895-837 (1732)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100	Georgia Stateavg 54¢	$35.4	$40.97	+$5.57	25% 62-187 (249)

primmCTR

Georgia Southern

Invested

$4,892.02

Value

$4.6K

PnL

-$258.32

Record

59%

948-662 (1610)

RN1

Georgia State

Invested

$4,451.49

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$357.12

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Georgia State

Invested

$3,385.79

Value

$3.2K

PnL

-$136.15

Record

50%

2576-2535 (5111)

stackingsatsCTR

Georgia Southern

Invested

$3,213.38

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$110.83

Record

19-189 (208)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Georgia State

Invested

$889.52

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$189.26

Record

51%

3880-3665 (7545)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$994.46

Value

$943.65

PnL

+$99.34

Record

50%

3828-3802 (7630)

Both legs:

Georgia State$574.2550.8¢+$149.05

Georgia Southern$281.4744.9¢-$49.71

38791873984189

Georgia State

Invested

$786.8

Value

$733.39

PnL

+$66.12

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

justaluckydude

Georgia State

Invested

$757

Value

$669.41

PnL

+$42.65

Record

48%

543-600 (1143)

cm2897

Georgia State

Invested

$278

Value

$403.1

PnL

+$125.1

Record

49%

1179-1209 (2388)

Pan9X

Georgia State

Invested

$199.47

Value

$219.63

PnL

+$25.3

Record

50%

1636-1654 (3290)

NatoAlfistaCTR<$100

Georgia Southern

Invested

$75.44

Value

$60.68

PnL

-$14.76

Record

43%

190-253 (443)

NotJump<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$47.3

Value

$48.5

PnL

+$1.2

Record

52%

895-837 (1732)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100

Georgia State

Invested

$35.4

Value

$40.97

PnL

+$5.57

Record

25%

62-187 (249)

Research grade

NeutralGeorgia State at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Georgia State

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Georgia State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.