Gardner-Webb vs. Western Illinois

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Western Illinois (38%) · Western Illinois at 98¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Gardner-Webb2¢Western Illinois98¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Western Illinois

Consensus Traders

Western Illinois 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.6K

Combined PnL

-$14.77

Smart Money Entry

98.8¢ → 98.3¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralWestern Illinois at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Western Illinois

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Gardner-Webb2%

Western Illinois98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Western Illinois3 traders

Total Value$5.4K

Total Shares5,529

Combined PnL-$30

Gardner-Webb5 traders

Total Value$58.76

Total Shares3,044

Combined PnL+$15.24

Western Illinois — 38%Gardner-Webb — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Western Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGardner-Webb 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWestern Illinois 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Western Illinois 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HA Hashbrown	Western Illinoisavg 98.9¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	-$33.93	85% 314-56 (370)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Gardner-Webbavg 1¢	$37.42	$61.53	+$24.11	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
└ Gardner-Webb leg	Gardner-Webbavg 1¢	$20	$36	+$16
└ Western Illinois leg	Western Illinoisavg 67¢	$17.42	$25.53	+$8.11
RN1CTR<$100	Gardner-Webbavg 1.2¢	$18.86	$28.3	+$9.43	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
AV averagejoetraders<$100	Western Illinoisavg 81¢	$16.2	$18.8	+$2.6	56% 760-609 (1369)
0X 0xfFFF6537CTR<$100	Gardner-Webbavg 1.1¢	$8.53	$14.34	+$5.81	38% 53-87 (140)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Gardner-Webbavg 1.3¢	$9	$12.49	+$3.49	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
PA pauleta23<$100	Western Illinoisavg 83¢	$10	$11.33	+$1.33	40% 442-667 (1109)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Gardner-Webbavg 33¢	$6.93	$3.57	-$3.36	51% 568-535 (1103)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Gardner-Webbavg 17¢	$0.2	$0.07	-$0.13	37% 1063-1799 (2862)

Hashbrown

Western Illinois

Invested

$5,435.14

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$33.93

Record

85%

314-56 (370)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Gardner-Webb

Invested

$37.42

Value

$61.53

PnL

+$24.11

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Both legs:

Gardner-Webb$201¢+$16

Western Illinois$17.4267¢+$8.11

RN1CTR<$100

Gardner-Webb

Invested

$18.86

Value

$28.3

PnL

+$9.43

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

averagejoetraders<$100

Western Illinois

Invested

$16.2

Value

$18.8

PnL

+$2.6

Record

56%

760-609 (1369)

0xfFFF6537CTR<$100

Gardner-Webb

Invested

$8.53

Value

$14.34

PnL

+$5.81

Record

38%

53-87 (140)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Gardner-Webb

Invested

Value

$12.49

PnL

+$3.49

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

pauleta23<$100

Western Illinois

Invested

$10

Value

$11.33

PnL

+$1.33

Record

40%

442-667 (1109)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Gardner-Webb

Invested

$6.93

Value

$3.57

PnL

-$3.36

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Gardner-Webb

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.13

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

Research grade

NeutralWestern Illinois at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Western Illinois

3 of 8 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Western Illinois. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleGardner-Webb 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrWestern Illinois 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Western Illinois 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Western Illinois wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.3%

98.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.