Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Fresno State, while the market favors Utah State (51%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Fresno State vs. Utah State

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Fresno State (100%) · Fresno State at 50¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 8

Fresno State50¢Utah State50¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Fresno State

Consensus Traders

Fresno State 100%

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

$240.77

Smart Money Entry

49.9¢ → 49.5¢

-1% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralFresno State at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Fresno State

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Utah State 51%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Fresno State50%

Utah State51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Fresno State10 traders

Total Value$13.1K

Total Shares25,810

Combined PnL+$240.77

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Fresno State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Fresno State) and the top 1000 (4 on Utah State) disagree here.

whaleUtah State 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpFresno State 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUtah State 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedFresno State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Utah State 75% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Fresno Stateavg 50¢	$6.8K	$6.4K	+$252.8	49% 441-465 (906)
VeryLucky888CTR	Fresno Stateavg 49.6¢	$2.7K	$2.7K	-$5.52	58% 47334-34134 (81468)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Fresno Stateavg 50¢	$2.5K	$2.4K	-$24.66	54% 18337-15440 (33777)
HaradwaithCTR	Fresno Stateavg 50¢	$500.05	$495.05	-$5	40% 6626-9997 (16623)
PI PiEDawgCTR	Fresno Stateavg 50¢	$500	$351.07	+$10.23	35% 1844-3415 (5259)
NM NM-PCTR	Fresno Stateavg 50¢	$254.55	$262.09	+$7.54	64% 10131-5689 (15820)
GC GC-PCTR	Fresno Stateavg 50¢	$250	$257.5	+$7.5	64% 10152-5754 (15906)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Fresno Stateavg 50¢	$147.95	$146.85	-$1.48	51% 26884-25495 (52379)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Fresno Stateavg 50¢	$43.54	$43.1	-$0.44	58% 21580-15650 (37230)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Fresno Stateavg 50¢	$34.61	$34.52	-$0.2	50% 26296-25935 (52231)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Fresno State

Invested

$6,773.88

Value

$6.4K

PnL

+$252.8

Record

49%

441-465 (906)

VeryLucky888CTR

Fresno State

Invested

$2,675.47

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$5.52

Record

58%

47334-34134 (81468)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Fresno State

Invested

$2,466

Value

$2.4K

PnL

-$24.66

Record

54%

18337-15440 (33777)

HaradwaithCTR

Fresno State

Invested

$500.05

Value

$495.05

PnL

-$5

Record

40%

6626-9997 (16623)

PiEDawgCTR

Fresno State

Invested

$500

Value

$351.07

PnL

+$10.23

Record

35%

1844-3415 (5259)

NM-PCTR

Fresno State

Invested

$254.55

Value

$262.09

PnL

+$7.54

Record

64%

10131-5689 (15820)

GC-PCTR

Fresno State

Invested

$250

Value

$257.5

PnL

+$7.5

Record

64%

10152-5754 (15906)

FlaznorpCTR

Fresno State

Invested

$147.95

Value

$146.85

PnL

-$1.48

Record

51%

26884-25495 (52379)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Fresno State

Invested

$43.54

Value

$43.1

PnL

-$0.44

Record

58%

21580-15650 (37230)

sentrioCTR<$100

Fresno State

Invested

$34.61

Value

$34.52

PnL

-$0.2

Record

50%

26296-25935 (52231)

Research grade

NeutralFresno State at 50%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Fresno State

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Utah State 51%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-20 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Fresno State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Fresno State) and the top 1000 (4 on Utah State) disagree here.

whaleUtah State 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpFresno State 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUtah State 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedFresno State 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Utah State 75% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Fresno State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.