Fresno State vs. Texas State

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Texas State (18%) · Texas State at 79¢ · $39K held · ends Nov 14

Fresno State22¢Texas State78¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Texas State

Consensus Traders

Texas State 18%

Total Value

$39.0K

Combined PnL

$765.99

Smart Money Entry

78¢ → 78.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralTexas State at 79%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas State

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Fresno State22%

Texas State79%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Texas State2 traders

Total Value$30.0K

Total Shares38,193

Combined PnL+$194.6

Fresno State9 traders

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares38,340

Combined PnL+$571.38

Texas State — 18%Fresno State — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Texas Stateavg 78¢	$29.6K	$29.8K	+$190.61	46% 499-596 (1095)
IM imjustkenisgheyCTR	Fresno Stateavg 22¢	$4.2K	$4.5K	+$285.6	48% 34-37 (71)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Fresno Stateavg 22¢	$3.0K	$3.2K	+$203.39	48% 635-675 (1310)
HI hi774cCTR	Fresno Stateavg 22.3¢	$726.2	$765.21	+$39.01	22% 179-619 (798)
38 38791873984189CTR	Fresno Stateavg 22¢	$486.64	$519.82	+$33.18	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
SN SnakeBall	Texas Stateavg 75¢	$199.5	$203.49	+$3.99	47% 936-1036 (1972)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Fresno Stateavg 22¢	$33	$35.25	+$2.25	50% 1594-1620 (3214)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Fresno Stateavg 22¢	$18.92	$18.49	-$0.43	51% 568-535 (1103)
EF efntrickCTR<$100	Fresno Stateavg 22¢	$4.4	$4.7	+$0.3	44% 87-112 (199)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Fresno Stateavg 21¢	$1.97	$2.02	+$0.05	54% 1417-1228 (2645)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Fresno Stateavg 23¢	$8.4	$1.61	+$8.04	53% 1811-1610 (3421)

omnibus-076daa

Texas State

Invested

$29,581.93

Value

$29.8K

PnL

+$190.61

Record

46%

499-596 (1095)

imjustkenisgheyCTR

Fresno State

Invested

$4,188.8

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$285.6

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Fresno State

Invested

$2,983

Value

$3.2K

PnL

+$203.39

Record

48%

635-675 (1310)

hi774cCTR

Fresno State

Invested

$726.2

Value

$765.21

PnL

+$39.01

Record

22%

179-619 (798)

38791873984189CTR

Fresno State

Invested

$486.64

Value

$519.82

PnL

+$33.18

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

SnakeBall

Texas State

Invested

$199.5

Value

$203.49

PnL

+$3.99

Record

47%

936-1036 (1972)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Fresno State

Invested

$33

Value

$35.25

PnL

+$2.25

Record

50%

1594-1620 (3214)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Fresno State

Invested

$18.92

Value

$18.49

PnL

-$0.43

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

efntrickCTR<$100

Fresno State

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.7

PnL

+$0.3

Record

44%

87-112 (199)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Fresno State

Invested

$1.97

Value

$2.02

PnL

+$0.05

Record

54%

1417-1228 (2645)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Fresno State

Invested

$8.4

Value

$1.61

PnL

+$8.04

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

Research grade

NeutralTexas State at 79%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Texas State

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance80.3%

78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$24.51

Max Loss

-$100.00

124.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.